Data Analysis: what is the actual average player's score per mode? (and how long will it take you to do this event)

Okay, so this post is going to be long, but I think it’s important enough, because it affects everybody given the new event structure.

What is the actual average score per mode? And how much variation is there between good players and average players in the time to complete score based tasks.

So first we’re going to establish what the average score is, and how it changes with player capability. We’re going to stick to AB/RB for this, as Sim Air is very different in a lot of ways, and Sim Ground has thin data.

I took a randomly chosen full squadron (which shall remain anonymous, and may or may not have been the squadron of a prominent “just git gud, scrub” advocate on these forums, the quality of the squadron or its players has no bearing on this analysis, it’s just a sample data set). I noted down average score, and also the average relative place of all players who had more than 100 games in that mode, for the last month. These are all publicly available stats everyone can see on everyone else’s server record.

I then ran scatterplots on that data to get a sense of how fuzzy it was going to be. My theory was that, because average placement in a match is tied to your average score, there would be, if not a linear relation, a fairly close one. It wasn’t going to be perfectly linear, because in some modes there is going to be wider variation in the game experience between BRs than others.

Here’s the results for the six non-Sim modes. In all cases, the player’s average placement in matches is along the bottom, and their average score is on the left side. I also described the best-fit equation (you can judge for yourselves how good a fit it is by the R-squared value)

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Naval modes have less data than the others, but there’s still enough to draw some inference from. Both naval and air have a fairly wide variation in performance, again probably because different BRs have different average score per game generally. Naval ships at higher BRs have more damage to take for instance, which could increase score for higher-rank matches over lower-rank ones. Similarly in Air the relative proportion of score in bases, ground targets, caps, and kills will also vary significantly by BR.

Ground modes actually were surprisingly linear, with very little deviation up or down from the best fit function. This could be consistent with the fact that most ground maps and ground match sizes are roughly the same across BRs.

So what this gives us is a set of data that we can use to evaluate average score for different qualities of player fairly precisely. Picking the values of 50, 67, 75 and 80, corresponding to the percent of players on average who are below you on the scoreboard, we get this table:

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Score/game
Air AB Air RB Ground AB Ground RB Naval AB Naval RB
50% player 1073 701 1156 1098 1050 1002
67% player 1644 1230 1681 1621 1511 1422
75% player 2010 1603 1976 1899 1880 1677
80% player 2279 1891 2176 2082 2161 1859

The top-quartile of players (in any given game) is doing about double the average player’s score in all modes. So what happens if we add in standard event multipliers? This:

Spoiler
Score/game (adjusted)
Air AB Air RB Ground AB Ground RB Naval AB Naval RB
Multipliers 1 1.4 0.93 1.33 1.9 2.2
50% player 1073 981 1075 1460 1994 2204
67% player 1644 1722 1564 2156 2871 3129
75% player 2010 2244 1838 2525 3572 3689
80% player 2279 2648 2024 2770 4105 4090

To figure out how long it takes players in these events to complete, we need to introduce another stat, max games per hour. This is based on some work I did a while ago, and is across all BRs. It pegged a ground RB to 5 games an hour, and based on server replays, figured out how many games were being played per hour by a similarly dedicated player in other modes. (Unfortunately I didn’t collect data for naval RB, so we’re going to have to drop it from this analysis going forward.)

Max games per hour:
Air AB: 5.4
Air RB: 5.6
Ground AB: 4.9
Ground RB: 5
Naval AB: 5.3

These stats are for the duration of the whole match. Obviously if you don’t play most matches to the end for whatever reason, you could fit in more here, but this is a good set of figures I find for players playing full lineups to their last vehicle, at least most of the time. Basically air and naval games go a bit faster than ground games (note, this probably isn’t the best estimate number for naval, where a lot of really short low-tier games are being mushed in with a lot of really long high-tier games).

Taking that factor into account, here’s the average score per hour, after multipliers per mode, based on player quality.

Spoiler
Adjusted score/hour
Air AB Air RB Ground AB Ground RB Naval AB
Games/hour 5.4 5.6 4.9 5 5.3
50% player 5795 5493 5266 7300 10569
67% player 8879 9642 7662 10782 15216
75% player 10853 12565 9006 12627 18934
80% player 12305 14827 9917 13848 21756

What one can say is AB players are being put at a huuuge, almost prohibitive disadvantage here. A top-fifth player in AB is completing this event 33% slower than top RB player, and even less than a top third RB player by these metrics.

So if we take the current challenge, to get the 22,500 points per day, we’re looking at the following hours per day over the 16 day period (I know, it’s just a ground event, but we’re getting air and naval events after this one where this will be more relevant, assuming a similar event with similar multipliers.)

Spoiler
Time to complete 22,500 points per day in hours
Air AB Air RB Ground AB Ground RB Naval AB
50% player 3.9 4.1 4.3 3.1 2.1
67% player 2.5 2.3 2.9 2.1 1.5
75% player 2.1 1.8 2.5 1.8 1.2
80% player 1.8 1.5 2.3 1.6 1.0

You can all decide for yourselves what a reasonable commitment of hours per day is for a player to obtain a (high tier!) digital tank, and what level of player is being excluded from this event and who it’s “made for.”

Similarly, to have a coupon to trade at the current values, here’s the time per day in hours for that, over the 16 days.

Spoiler
Time to complete 41,667 points per day in hours
Air AB Air RB Ground AB Ground RB Naval AB
50% player 7.2 7.6 7.9 5.7 3.9
67% player 4.7 4.3 5.4 3.9 2.7
75% player 3.8 3.3 4.6 3.3 2.2
80% player 3.4 2.8 4.2 3.0 1.9

Fair? Unfair? Your mileage gonna vary on this one. But those are the actual stats. People claiming they are finishing this in more or less time should be up front about what their average relative position in the mode is, though. Makes a big difference if you’re top-half or top-fifth though, as you can see here.

UPDATE: Okay, some people have brought up what percentage of people we’re talking about in each of the categories above. We can crunch the sample we have (N=208) through a standard deviation calculator, assuming the distribution is normal for these purposes, and see what percent of players are better or worse than a given relative position. The standard deviation on the sample is 12.502, on a mean of 51.827 if you want to follow along at home. What it comes to is:

50% average relative position: Better than 44.2% of all players.
67% average relative position: Better than 88.8% of all players
75% average relative positionr: Better than 96.8% of all players
80% average relative position: Better than 98.8% of all players.

You can then flip this around from a given score and figure out how many players can get it. So for example, a 1500 score in ground RB equates to 61% on average relative position, which works out to better than 76.7% of all players on the same normal distribution curve described above. So approximately one quarter of players are going to have an average score equal or better to 1500 in ground RB.

Thx to Poul for the proofread.

20 Likes

If im reading this right, for the 80% player, the average time to reach daily 22.5k score in ground RB is 1 hour 36 minutes, correct?

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Thanks for sharing this, it just proves how unfair multipliers by game mode are right now. Ground AB are put in a huge disadvantage.

Great work as always!

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Now compare those hours relative to a vehicle of Rank 7 in any TT.

Rank 7 varies from 260k to 300k in RP for a vehicle, so lets use a 280k figure. lets use top tier lobbies which for me I averaged roughly 10-11 minute matches give or take so ill use 11 minutes, now on a good game I could earn anywhere upto 15k RP with a Talisman/premium lineup and on a bad game anywhere from 5-6k RP. so I think its fair to assume 9-10k RP on average for most players.

If we take the 280,000/10000 = 28 matches, 28*11 = 308 minutes or 5.1 hours. so in terms of time (if this vehicle was in the TT) it works out to be roughly equal in time investment as the event.

But what now needs to be mentioned is the fact the vehicle is not only on a timed event but also has a coupon tied to its reward which would “double” the time required.

So while its subjective to assume the event is “hard or easy” when you compare it to a typical grind of a TT vehicle of equal rank it works out to be about right in time fairness for all players.

Lower tier players and players playing AB are punished because of 2 reasons, AB players even if you grind a Rank 7 with Rank 7s in GAB your RP per game is much lower due to easier mechanics existing in AB mode so kills/score/rp earnings can “potentially” be higher but often are not due to player skill levels being much lower in AB modes

Lower rank players well this should be obvious, they would also be punished if they used lower rank vehicles to grind higher rank vehicles (so the same systems effectively still apply here) there grind is going to be longer.

So for anyone claiming this event is hard, it really is not when you look at it from a TT pov where its easier. and that easier “grind” also comes with the caviate of it being a more “burst grind” because its a limited timed event.

That’s right.

Which puts the session i recorded with 5.7 US lineup to below average (1 hour 38 minutes) and the top tier germany session to above average (1 hour 24 minutes ).

not making any claims here, just thinking out loud.

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I would put myself as an average player maybe a bit better.
For the second star i needed roughly 4h Rank7 10.3 Germany GRB
for the First Star it was better with 3h.
Take from that what u want

I actually made my own topic yesterday in case you havent seen it, ran with top tier germany first. You can go and compare your experience with what i recorded.

See, here’s the problem some people have. I’m gonna try and put a finger on it for ya.

If you’re gonna flex and do the “git gud scrub” thing in another game, like a single-player game, yknow, who cares, right? You’re good, you know you, are, people are saying Dark Souls XII is hard, it’s not for you, so anyone who gets annoyed by that, it’s on them.

But in a multiplayer game, someone who’s top-quartile, as you are, who has full lineups in top tier, spaded, with well-trained crews, says things like, “you just need to come play at the BRs I do, I’m just average, anyone can do what I can do”, well, you’re basically looking like someone who is encouraging those 50% and 60% players to take an even lower relative position and lower score per hour. Basically you’re encouraging them to become your food by playing this event, at what for them currently is a non-competitive level.

How you value your time (not just you, personally, this is directed at all the “git gud” brigade on this forum) and whether this event is easier for you is your business. Whether you think only the top fifth or the top third of players is entitled to a chance at this current prize with a reasonable amount of effort is your opinion. Go for it, make your case.

But when people start saying things like “you just need to play up where I’m playing, cause I’m average and this is my average score,” yeah, that’s just a lure for the marks. And they just look like they’re trying to make their day even easier by luring up a couple more target dummies to high tier for them and their friends to toy with (we’re gonna see this soooo much more during the next air event, btw). That’s how you’ve been coming across on this forum in this and other threads. That is the perception of yourself you are leaving. And that’s why a lot of people seem not to like you right now. Sorrynotsorry.

The following and preceding was personal opinion, not stats: yes, events are not for everyone. But I’m a top-quartile player in a few modes (not ground RB, yet) myself, and I would find it very distasteful to be just saying “git gud, come play with me, I’m only average, this’ll take me an hour, so it’ll take you an hour” in a multiplayer game where we’re all score for each other to take, as opposed to offering some useful advice to those players on how to get better (which, to be frank, I don’t see you doing.)

9 Likes

You still missed the entire point I just pointed out.

if this vehicle was in the TT the time investment is STILL equal to that of the event vehicle and thats WITH premium time/talismans, exclude that and that 5.1 hour will double because RP is 100% boosted from talisman/premium, if we half my RP figure to assume lower than average player skill then its even HIGHER to grind a TT vehicle of equivelance proving the point even more.

So even F2P players would suffer MORE grinding this vehicle if it was in the TT vs an event.

Your own metrics prove time wise its easier than a Rank 7 vehicle in a TT, this has nothing to do with skill at this point because when you compare the time to grind it, its the same or HIGHER for a TT equivelant.

And lower ranks getting punished also is not a skill issue or “git gud” argument, its there to prevent lower rank players suddendly grinding an entire TT without touching the appropriate ranks along the way and learning the new mechanics that come with some ranks like Radar, SPAA, SAMs etc. its a ladder approach done by gaijin to literally encourage players to learn “as they go up”

Premiums do devalue that point but as these have an entry barrier with cost but also you only have “1” with 20 backups thats why “new” players who get premiums for top tier prove the point of lack of skill and why lower tier players are punished for grinding higher tier rewards because its not an intended gameplay loop

That same restriction applies to the event MORE SO because the event vehicle has neither a cost barrier NOR a TT/Rank barrier so ofc its going to be harder for ppl of lower ranks/skill because its not intended to be achieved “by everyone at every rank” which many arguing this event is difficult need to understand that part.

especially those who grind the events at lower ranks, those same restrictions apply even in a TT grind which is harder regardless of skill.

If gaijin made this event any easier you actually ruin the BR that this vehicle is intended for because you will be encouraging lower skilled players into a BR they have no experience in which is precisely why these modifiers exist. the same restrictions that exist in a TT grind

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Because it’s easier to score high in ground AB, I’ve gotten 7k in one match. As for 22k in one hour, I feel that’s a bit high, however, I did play like 2 hours and got 17k score for the event (not being a try hard to get the vehicle)

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I could not care less what perception I am giving, if your failing to see why restrictions are in place in this event which is to discourage lower rank/skilled players from obtaining the vehicle then your view is flawed and ignorant of similar restrictions that exist in a TT grind that is already substantially harder than the event its self.

You dont get to play Rank 3 and grind out Rank 8 to the same level of ease as someone at Rank 7 would, thats not how this works and if anything proves the arguments that some people have made me included about many simply want handouts for this event because it has a monetary value attached to it.

You want to play Rank 3-4 to grind the event, by all means. gaijin allows it but dont expect it to be easier when the vehicle in question is so much higher in rank there is already a level of skill/experience difference between those ranks. Its fair lower ranks have a harder time obtaining it because its the same rule that the TT follows.

Imagine if the event could be done by everyone even lower rank players who dont have top tier… tell me how BR 10.0 would be when several thousand+ are using this vehicle and single handedly ruin a BR bracket due to lack of skill. sorry but thats fact, we saw that with the Mig23MF event in air and we saw it with other vehicles. if you cannot see why these restrictions are in place then your view point is flawed.

It’s not what the stats shown here says:

On average, players score more in Ground RB than in Ground AB due to the event multipliers.

Imagine if the event could be done by everyone even lower rank players who dont have top tier… tell me how BR 10.0 would be when several thousand+ are using this vehicle and single handedly ruin a BR bracket due to lack of skill.

Why imagine when that is literally the situation already?

If you only want higher rank players to get the vehicles, then restrict the event to higher rank vehicles and that problem is solved.
Or make it so that an event vehicle can only be paired with a vehicle of an equal or higher BR so it cannot be used unless you have more vehicles there.

Clearly that is not being done so I would argue it is not something Gaijin cares about.

Instead you make the event so impossible to grind for pretty much anyone at low or high BR and make it demanding only in time, that it doesn’t actually have anything to do with skill.

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I once saw the WT official streamer try to stream Ground AB on the official stream and it went pretty bad for him so… do you think a single game can tell you anything that represents the average WT player?

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So you think letting more people access a BR 10.0 tank at Rank 7 is the solution… yes that sounds totally logical to me.

No because I can 100% bet and I’de wager my entire account on this “people like you” would STILL COMPLAIN and you know I am right, gaijin make it available for all players to participate in because they can but dont try to argue its “unfair” that lower rank players get punished because of modifiers when the entire point is to “limit” how many lower rank players get said vehicle and ruin entire lobbies if everyone obtained it.

Thats why the coupon portion cannot be GE’d now either.

Its crazy how NOT A SINGLE person in any talk about this wants to talk about “why” the event has modifiers and why its designed to restrict almost everyone from getting it. shocker (its not money)

So you think letting more people access a BR 10.0 tank at Rank 7 is the solution… yes that sounds totally logical to me.

Yeah, can you imagine having hundreds of thousands of people having access to rank 7? Would really be a bad idea and hurt the game by everyone just playing there and leaving the game once they die, glad that isn’t’ happening.

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the entire point is to “limit” how many lower rank players get said vehicle and ruin entire lobbies if everyone obtained it.

Is that the entire point or did you decide that is the entire point? I don’t see Gaijin making that statement.

Its crazy how NOT A SINGLE person in any talk about this wants to talk about “why” the event has modifiers and why its designed to restrict almost everyone from getting it. shocker (its not money)

Because we know why it has modifiers, and everyone who played the game knows it, realistic is slower than arcade and top tier earn less than lower BRs thus there are modifiers to compensate and equalize it.

The fact a company obsessed with money and only ever cares about money manages to ruin an event so badly and they’re losing money doing it is quite ironic though.

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could you imagine a rank 3-4 player who doesnt have top tier get access to a free vehicle with no entry barrier beyond “time”.

you post stats but your ignoring the fact lower rank players are in much higher numbers vs top tier so if you all of a sudden had a influx of several tens of thousands of low rank players filling up the russian BR 10.0 bracket. oh that would be amazing day /s

please dont game design because by that logic that would utterly ruin the situation even worse than it is now.

if you do not understand basic game design and gameplay loops then why even try to make a rebuttal… maybe go watch some presentations from Unreal about game design and gameplay loops, why do you think AB and lower ranks have either equal or negative modifiers… vs high ranks for ironically a high tier reward… ill give you a minute or two to think on that.

If you want to grind the event at lower ranks, you are more than welcome too. but do not complain about it being harder when the modifiers exist to stop “all skill ranges of players” from gaining acess to a vehicle that they either have no experience in OR no experience in that BR.

could you imagine a rank 3-4 player who doesnt have top tier get access to a free vehicle with no entry barrier beyond “time”.

The only difference now is that time is replaced with money.

you post stats but your ignoring the fact lower rank players are in much higher numbers vs top tier so if you all of a sudden had a influx of several tens of thousands of low rank players filling up the russian BR 10.0 bracket. oh that would be amazing day /s

Yeah, that’d be true if you didn’t just made that up.

Nowhere else are there are many players as in top tier, below BR 5 the highest amount is 29k, which is nothing compared to the 260k at top tier.

Tens of thousands of low rank players adding to the already 200.000 low rank players at BR 10 Russia would be pretty insignificant.

The bigger issue is that the lower BRs would be even less populated in comparison.

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why do you think AB and lower ranks have either equal or negative modifiers… vs high ranks for ironically a high tier reward

Definitely didn’t just answer that in my previous post.

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comparing free time to money to an entry barrier is commical… but whatever. I dont even need to argue how stupid that is but sure lets role with it.

where are you even pulling 260k from? I hope that isnt the player number top left? because thats concurrent of all players online. and top tier isnt even close to 260k players lmfao if you think that, you only have to look at the number of people queing at the different ranks and ironically top tier has the least vs the majority of ranks below it. but sure whatever.

Rank 8 is lower than Rank 7 in queued matches, and Rank 3-4 are ironically comparable to Rank 7 so i dont even see how your “claimed” figures are so widly different.

Also pretty sure those figures are battles not players cz even the WT Data Project has similar metrics

the bigger issue would be getting even more inexperienced players into a BR bracket they have no need or reason to be at when they havent got that far in a normal grind