[Discussion] Balance, Bias, Matchmaking and Battle Ratings

Hey, does anyone know why Italy’s first IFV is at 9.3 despite not having any ATGMS and despite having the Bradley at 8.7 with TOWs?

It’s very mobile and has a cannon, with APFSDS belt and high RoF, which is pretty good against most targets it meets, kinda similar to Japanese Type 87 RCV, but stabilized and larger. Stock can be hard, but once spaded it’s a pretty good vehicle.
For lower brs other vehicles can be added, like these for example:

No last time I checked it only had APDS belts on it, also, idea: what if you can research a missile for it.

And yes I totally agree with adding more unique Italian vehicles but they still need to balance the current ones AHEM Sidam 25

It has PMB 090 apfsds, top belt is full apfsds.
You should probably wait for another VBC if you want the one with ATGMs.

Although the one with TOW will go to higher brs, unless they limit the main cannon to just apds.

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Yes, true

Is it the highest IFV without a missile tho?

I personally don’t have it but does it stand a chance against MBTS?

Yeah Sidam sucks, they need to give it SAPHEI-T belt, would make a bit better and able to defend itself against more targets on the ground + an upgrade to a more expensive prototype variant would be nice, especially if you could toggle it by researchable modification.

French VBCI sits at 9.7 with 30 mm + there are multiple with higher caliber (mainly CV90 family).

Yes, there are always many lightly armored targets at these brs, including MBTs, some you won’t be able to penetrate from the front (mostly Soviet with good armor), but you shred everything through sides in seconds and this is exactly what you will do most of time - flank and surprise attack. I should say that 9.3 became a very nice place since stuff like 2A4 was moved higher.

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IFVs are overtiered in general, referring to the 9.0+ ones.

Cent 2 is my most used tank, It is basically invulnerable to Tiger 1 frontally in downtiers, can traverse maps quite easily and will pen near enough anything quite easy unless its a full uptier in which you become useless, 6.7 is its sweet spot. American Heavies are good at 6.7, would do just fine at 7.0.

I think you’re mistaking overtiering for BR compression. the tech difference from 6.7 to 8.7 is the most dramatic in the game making some extremely good lineups (like 7.7 britain) still be destroyed in uptiers because its tanks from the early 50s seeing stuff from the 60s and newer. Dont put them lower, spread them all out more

You didn’t really play with it. The issue is a mess to play with it if you’re not under 7.0 battle and of course, if decompression is getting fix, it would be ‘fine’ in 6.7

for now they are fine enough at that BR as any higher or lower they become OP or trash, with decompression of course the BR will change

Lmao @ moving the Sturer emil (an already op TD) down to 4.0 this update.

anyway (all of the following is said about arcade):
Premiums are blatantly, by and large, OP
TT vs preems (1)
Explanation: If premiums were balanced, the lines for premium (gold) and Tech tree (blue) vehicles would be coincident, or at least statistically indifferentiable)

Russian Bias is immense and impossible to ignore (+ Gaijin hates Italy):


KD (%) by nation and BR
Explanation: If Russian bias weren’t real, the Russian line would be in line with all the others instead of nearly twice as high. For the second graph, The Russian line would have an average of 1, not start at nearly 2 and go off into space at BR>10

AAs (especially at lower BRs) and, to a lesser exent, LTs are systemically overranked in arcade:
Log K_D
Win% by vehicle type
Log RP_Match
Log SL_M
Explanations: These graphs display SL per match, RP per match, Win%, and K/Ds by vehicle type. If vehicle types were acurrately assigned BRs, all these lines would be coincident

Seriously though, Russian bias and, to a lesser extent, American bias is insane and obvious:
KD (1)
KD PCT (1)
Explanation: If the game were balanced, in the first graph, every nation except Israel would have a value around 2, with israel slightly below (because it starts at rank IV, where more skilled players play), and all nations would be around 1 on the second graph. Note france and Israel being below 2 on the first graph, but above 1 on the second, this indicates that they’re actually unbalanced, and their seeming deficiencies are an artifact of the fact that I have a lot of data for France from higher BRs and Israel starts at rank IV. Countries like The US, Russia, and to a lesser extent, Germany, being above average in both indicates poor balance.

and AAs are really obviously on the backfoot compared to ground vehicles:
Killspace
Explanation: better blaance between AAs and other AFVs would be achieved if AAs (high Air KD vehicles) could avhieve KDs similar to ground vehicles, but by a factor of around 3, they’re SOL)

A couple egregiously undertiered vehicles are as follows:

FR D2
RU SU-57
JP Ro-Go Exp.
SW SAV 20.12.48
SW Strv m/42 EH
RU T-28E
IT Sherman I Composito
JP M24
GE Tiger H1
GE Pz.IV G
FR AMX-30 S DCA
RU KV-7
UK Stuart I
CN T-26
GE Flakpanzer 38
UK Crusader III
RU T-35
US T14
RU T-28
FR 2C bis
CN M42
GE Sturer Emil
US M3 GMC
SW Strv m/41 S-I
GE 15cm sIG 33 B Sfl
FR SANTAL
RU T-26-4
RU SU-122
FR Panther Dauphiné
GE Nb.Fz.
US M3 Stuart
RU T-34 (1940)
GE Sd.Kfz.251/9
FR 2C
JP Chi-Ha Short Gun
GE Flakpanzer 1
RU SU-76M
GE Pz.IV H
US M24
US M2
RU T-50
RU T-34 (1942)
RU T-III

Provisional BR recommendations, for those I excluded, my mathematical model broke down:
|D2|3.3|
|SU-57|3|
|Ro-Go Exp.|3|
|Strv m/42 EH|3.3|
|T-28E|3.7|
|Sherman I Composito|4.7|
|M24|3.7|
|Tiger H1|7.7|
|KV-7|5.7|
|Stuart I|3.3|
|T-26|3|
|Flakpanzer 38|3|
|Crusader III|3.3|
|T-35|3.7|
|T14|6.7|
|T-28|3.7|
|2C bis|3.7|
|Strv m/41 S-I|3.3|
|15cm sIG 33 B Sfl|3|
|SU-122|3.7|
|Panther Dauphiné|7.3|
|Nb.Fz.|3.3|
|M3 Stuart|3.3|
|T-34 (1940)|3.7|
|Sd.Kfz.251/9|3|
|2C|3.7|
|Chi-Ha Short Gun|3.3|
|Flakpanzer 1|3|
|SU-76M|3|
|M2|3.3|
|T-50|3.3|
|T-34 (1942)|4.3|
|T-III|3.3|

What is that graph showing?

And where are you getting this data from?

I don’t see that many undertiered tanks in that list. The majority of those are low tier tanks that are incredibly good in the hands of a good player. Some of those are undertiered such as the M24s, but some are not good, such as AMX-30DCA or T-26-4.

I think your model needs some work.

I think data analysis of BRs is a great idea, but it isn’t entirely clear what all the graphs are showing, in my opinion.

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What is that graph showing?

Assuming you’re talking about the graph regarding preems.

it is displaying the average K/D ratio of premium and tech tree vehicles at each br sampled. More skilled players tend to play top tier, so on average the lines slope down (seal club effect), the difference in height between them is the relative disparity in vehicle performance between premiums and TT vehicles.

And where are you getting this data from?

It is my own work. I don’t think sites like thunderskill have a robust enough sampling methodology and aren’t really adept at providing enough insight into the data to say anything meaningful. Therefore I manage my own spreadsheet and collect data about the game.

I don’t see that many undertiered tanks in that list. The majority of those are low tier tanks that are incredibly good in the hands of a good player.

That’s up for contention, but I’d like to see your model for how you differentiate between “a tank with lots of room to move up in br that experienced players can recognize as a tank with stats inappropriate for its br” and that.

I think your model needs some work.

That is correct! If Gaijin would make more data public, then this would be much easier, but until then I have to collect data about the game the hard way, so I made some compromises in the model that lets me work with less data but sacrifices accuracy to do so.

I think data analysis of BRs is a great idea, but it isn’t entirely clear what all the graphs are showing, in my opinion.

I’m flattered, and I’ve never been very good at labeling or otherwise presenting my data, so I’ll try to work on that.

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…what

EXCUSE ME ACTUALLY WHAT

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The list is quite frankly nonsensical. They have the french panther, but not the german one, and their BR recommendations are even wilder.

Like, Strv m/42 EH to 3.3? What? Yeah, it can be very good when used right, but its cannon has anemic penetration and against any sort of 75mm guns its armor is downright useless.

Hell, they even recommended the Sherman I composite go to 4.7.

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The Panther Dauphiné is a very good tank. I´m a pretty mediocre player and have been able to get an average of a 5.0 K/D with it. T-28E is also a bit of a beast, and the m/42 EH is pretty nice if you know what you’re doing with it.

TSR % VG1 % VG2 % Reload % HA1 % HA2 % HA3 % TA1 % TA2 % TA3 % Pen % Crew % Mass % HP % speed % Visibility % HG1 % HG2 % PWR %
0.8371808385 0.9873241318 0.6267837529 0.8785222704 1.514420953 1.499093418 1.433889275 1.976430593 1.247989797 1.428651029 0.8444857966 1.191389079 1.547707651 1.317581685 0.8224174996 1.302316114 1.158795183 1.15850878 0.8354970103

As you can see from its stats (this measure is a percent figure, the stats of other AFVs are compiled, a line of best fit is drawn, and these percentages express (the panthers stats / the value of the line of best fit at br=6.0)), where it excels, it excels quite a lot, where it suffers, it suffers quite modestly. 7.3 is the calculated value where the sum of the residuals for each stat is minimized as each stat is weighted by the elasticity between it and K/D, win%, SL/M, and RP/M.

I haven’t spaded any German Panther other than the Panther D, so they’re not included in my dataset for final recommendations, only as part of the trendline. It will spit out an equivalent recommendation for an equivalent Panther in the German tree. Had you made fewer assumptions instead of getting indignant, you could’ve asked that and found that out. Relative to the Dauphiné, the Panther D suffers with turret slew rate, which makes my model spit out only a 6.3 for it. Idk why on earth you started acting like an overemotional child and assumed I would be treating French vehicles capriciously.

Will Gaijin ever reconsider changing 1.0 BR MM spread to something lower ?
As it stands, 1.0 BR spread is a legacy system from a decade ago when WT had much less active players, so they needed to make sure queue times aren’t long.

But now, nothing really stops them to at least try 0.7 BR spread to see what happens.

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I do know that. Hell, the EH is one of my favorite tanks! However, that does not mean they need to go up. The EH’s gun has extremely anemic penetration, especially against shermans/T-34s/KV-1s.

The T-28E may have a half-decent gun, but it is a massive target and its armor is quite frankly paper.

7.3 for the panthers is quite frankly insane. That is .3 above the Tiger IIH, a vehicle which the Panther is absolutely inferior to.