Well, since Gaijin clearly will not release the drop chances of their gambling boxes and has brought them back yet again with the Travel Suitcase, we’re once again going submitng to calculate them together (but this time I’m actually starting on day 1 instead of day 16 lol). I have made a spreadsheet of all the possible items that can be dropped. The spreadsheet does all of the math, so all I need to know is how many of each prize was obtained and the spreadsheet will calculate the average value per drop, the chance of it dropping within its drop category, the overall drop chance, the SL spent, and the net SL change.
Below you can find the spreadsheet with all of the information and the form to submit information to. You can submit information in the form of an image, drawing, spreadsheet, video, or just a tally to the form below. You can also submit your tally in a comment to this post. I have added a new rule this time though: you must submit a full set of drops. I will not accept submissions of single drops (e.g. just a vehicle or just a decal). This is also why I have allowed y’all to submit prize tallies. Single drop submissions skew the data heavily, as seen in the Toolbox drop chance spreadsheet I did where the chance of a vehicle was supposedly around 1.57%, a number that is much higher than reality. So to avoid that, you need to submit a full drop set.
I hope you enjoy this project and I hope we can all get enough data to calculate the Travel Suitcase’s chances accurately!
I’m insanely happy for them because the chances of the IS-7 are 1 in 100 thousand (that’s the 1 chance Gaijin would reveal), but I can’t accept this unless I have a full set of drops because it will skew the data.
They don’t use the forum so they didn’t track all their drops, figured I’d post here as another example of an IS-7 knowing its extreme rarity. Later, I myself will be opening 100 or so crates, so I’ll be sure to supply all my results then.
Last year I got the Ersatz after 90 crates. Honestly I would’ve preferred something more unique like the KV-220, only 6 crates in is straight madness though.
Also y’all, remember to submit even if you think your drops aren’t significant because even if there are a lot of drops already in the table, every additional entry makes the data more and more accurate to the real numbers.
Thanks! This will likely consistently be at the top for a bit because updates are consistantly happening and numbers are consistantly updating because I am also tallying videos and my own drops (currently at 471 boxes tallied).
