27 days ago, I started a project for us to calculate the drop chances together. And the results are in! Thanks to y’all, we tabulated 3,904 boxes. I would like to extend a special thanks to @mixu83 for being an absolute chad and opening and submitting the exact results for a staggering 2,248 boxes (technically they opened 2,250, but 2 of them were not counted by the game and so we don’t know what they are) and @legoplaneman for submitting 970 boxes! @mixu83’s 2,248 counted openings made up 46.12% of all of the boxes opened, and @legoplaneman’s 970 boxes made up 19.90% of all boxes upened! I also added to the data all 405 of the boxes I opened. All of the results were tabulated in the following spreadsheet:
When the Toolbox’s chances were calculated, it resulted in a 1.57% chance of obtaining a vehicle. That is an incredibly skewed chance, and here’s why. For the toolbox, I accepted all submissions. This is an issue because it meant people were only submitting when they got vehicles because that is what people took screenshots of. So this time, I only allowed submissions of full dropsets. The results were much different and much more accurate. So here’s what your data showed.
The chance of getting a vehicle was 0.49%. This is about 1 vehicle for every 200 boxes. I had heard anecdotally that people were seeing chances of around 1 in 400, but the data portrays the higher 1 in 200 chance. In 4,874 boxes, 24 vehicles were obtained. Other than that, decals were the most common of the “good” prizes, with 49 being obtained out of 4,874 boxes, for a chance of 1.01%, still only 1 in 100. Only 3 camouflages were obtained, making it the rarest prize (aside from the IS-7) with a chance of 0.06%.
The most common drop was SL, with 37.30% of all drops being SL. The most common SL drop was 15,000. 10.79% of all drops were 15,000 SL, making it the most common drop. The next most common drops were 10,000 SL and 25,000 SL, with chances of 9.97% and 9.03% respectively. For boosters, the most common drop was far and out the 20% RP booster. 8.21% of all drops were 20% RP boosters. SL boosters were surprisingly uncommon. Only 3.20% of drops were 20% SL boosters and while RP boosters made up a total of 14.65% of all drops, SL boosters only made up 5.48% of all drops. Orders made up 12.58% of drops and the chances appear to be roughly equal across all orders. Domination had the lowest chance at 1.46%, and Blind Hunt had the highest chance at 2.20%. The difference between the orders can mostly be attributed to random chance and is negligible. The same applies to wagers. 14.24% of all drops were wagers. Destroy 5 Units was the least common wager with a chance of 1.42% and Wingman was the most common with a chance of 2.28%. Finally, universal backups made up 13.52% of all drops. Single backups had the highest chance at 7.25% of all drops, followed by double backups with a chance of 4.66%, with triple backups in third place at 1.62%.
The point of all of this is to show that while Gaijin advertizes all these vehicles and rare prizes you can obtain, the truth is that they are vanishingly rare. Vehicles, the crown jewel, have a chance of 1 in 200, and the other “good” prizes aren’t much better. That’s not to say that the other prizes are not of use, I have made liberal use of all the boosters I got, especially the SL boosters, but it is to say that if you are truly gunning for a vehicle, prepare to be disappointed. Even if you do get a vehicle, it could be a duplicate. I opened 405 boxes and got 1 vehicle at box 143: the IJN Haruna which I already got from the Summer Quest event. Instead it just turned into 1 million SL for me and I didn’t get another vehicle. I know that everyone knows that the chances are extremely rare, but even so, the actual numbers are very telling.
Anyway, that concludes this set of gambling boxes. The next time you’ll hear from me will likely be the next set of gambling boxes which will probably be at the end of September judging by the fact that they are releasing them when the events in the old event cycle used to happen. After that, y’all will just have to wait for 2024 in review because writing on that thing has commenced. Maybe you’ll also see one of my occasional ramblings about whatever event is happening too. Alright bye.
NOTE: This post has been updated to reflect the new statistics drawn by adding @legoplaneman’s 970 boxes.
