Probability about Uptier and Downtier

Game Discussion Realistic Battle
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13

That… Is not probabilities. That’s possibilities, which is very different

14

NO!

You got 4 BR’s in every match, probability to get uptiered is 75%!

BUT only 25% get full uptier.

Example: Match is 5.7 to 6-7:

25% 5.7 🡢 full uptier
25% 6.0 🡢 partial uptier
25% 6.3 🡢 partial uptier
25% 6.7 🡢 full downtier

…and that’s only the theoretical optimal case where all BR’s are indeed distributed equally, which in real life is never the case…

4 Likes
15

Your skill is also important when match making. So basically I think your “probability” can not convince others.

1 Like
16

Can’t even tell a joke anymore without getting the whole gang mad

17

Then declare it as joke…

I’ve been in innumeral discussions about this throughout my whole WT history, and the misconceptions here are very deep and persistent, so please understand the reaction. Didn’t want to attack you, just prevent misunferstandings.

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18

So uh… More uptiers = more skills and more downtiers = less skills? That explains the downtier of premium players I guess

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19

Pensonal skill is also a part of BR system working? Not random?

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20

That explains the win streak / lose streak alternance that we, or at least I experience

21

Some players called it as ELO when you matchmaking, not related to BR system but game matchmake. You can find some clips and video on Bilibili about some player test about it on War Thunder, but the data is player made as your data made by hand.

Matchmaking system is complex, and it would be possible that the system depends on your skill (recent KDs)/BR and more parameters.

So if you want to make something about BR uptier or downtier, you need to exclude other parameters could affect your data.

3 Likes
22

Is this an officially announced mechanic? This is the first I’ve ever heard of any sort of SBMM or ELO system in the game. My understanding is that officially there is no SBMM, or it has never been acknowledged at the very least.

3 Likes
23

Every MMO game has such system, but Gaijin hadn’t announced whether they have it or how theirs work.

That’s not meaning Gaijin has announced something. What I want to explain here is “OP’s test must exclude some parameters could affect his result due to the matchmaking system is complex”.

2 Likes
24

I mean I figured it existed, but I would never have thought a forum moderator or anyone would acknowledge it.

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25

We learn something new every day…

26

You know I’m a forum moderator, not a Gaijin staff.

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27

Thanks bro. u r doing a true hard work.
i want to add a little more:
Some nations had just only 1 or even no vehicles in specific BRs,such as FR4.3,Germ4.7.
“How many vehicles"can be a reference for"popularity”,bc players always want to play BRs which have diverse tanks.

2 Likes
28

Yes of course, but it is still interesting

1 Like
29

I always noticed the same pattern where a dead br will have more downtiers, dead br like a br with single vehicle or something, used to be a time 10.7 was always full downtiers because it only has a T-90A there with a SPAA, until a lot of 10.3s got moved up then current 10.7 stopped seeing full downtiers.

30

really?
Why I feel like anytime I try to play lower tier I got up tier everytime?
I feel like the only way I can avoid getting up tier is playing top tier or it just me?

31

The topest tier could avoid uptier, that’s always the best solution. =)

32

heh fair enough