Probability about Uptier and Downtier

This picture shows which BR u might face in realistic ground battles.They r mainly counted during april,except ussr9.0,which was counted after BR changes.
微信截图_20250509162003

Blank space means they r in my progress,u will see them later.
Tell me if u r interest in specific BRs or countries.i will add them into my progress,but it depends.

My English is poor,i am truly sorry i cant share more conclusions about this picture.but i think some of u can realize the regular pattern of BR working.

Finally,i want to say that dont worry about BRs when u truly in a match.Do not let the BRs impact ur play experience.

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Wrong. Why would you play a vehicle that has 70% uptiers, or stay in the match at all.

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bc many classic vehicles i loved r in bad BRs.

The difference in quality between 5.7 vehicles and 6.3/6.7 vehicles is…significant.

If you get uptiered into 6.3+ 93 times out of 110, then you’re just feeding other players. You can be good and have decent matches still, but you’re always fighting an uphill battle.

This is also why I think BR adjustments by 0.3 are of absolutely no practical relevance anymore, because the Matchmaker will screw you over anyways.

Oh and as you can see, when you bring a 6.7 lineup you’re still not playing at your BR, you’re getting into 7.0/7.3 matches 49 times out of 65.

Thanks for sharing the data @Da_SongSong it certainly mirrors my experiences in these BR brackets.

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Table is very strange or incomplete. The sum of all percentages is not even 100% across each BR, how can this be?

Also, include actual numbers of matches, not only percentages, and also consider average over all considered BR’s…

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i am sorry the picture have a wrong round up calculation,but it s still effective.i know it s imcomplete,i cant play all countries all BRs at the same time.so i asked u if u have a interested BR.The picture is just a simple record and a reference.

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Below are the brs that I find a lot of downtier or partial downtier when I played them, regardless of nations

9.0
9.7
11.0
11.3

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Agree.expect9.0.
In 9.0,Downtier or uptier depends on which country u play.CN and USSR seems quite different.

Ooh yeah very very fun to fight a F-89 with a warbird obviously

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I used to do very in-depth analysis of up/downtier probabilities based on Thunderskill data. Was always a lot of work and has it’s limitations, but it showed how those probabilities changed over time, and what BR’s suffer more than others.

It really depends a lot on the popularity of BR’s and thus of vehicles. IIRC when I did the analysis 5.7 was always in a difficult position, with significantly higher than theoretically to be expected uptier probabilities.

What really plays an important role here is not only the popularity of the BR you’re looking at, but especially of the neighboring BR’s. If 6.0-6.7 are very popular, but 4.7 to 4.3 less so, the probability for 5.7. to get uptiered is obviously higher.

Equal distribution of up/downtier probabilities over all BR’s would only be possible if all vehicles (or all BR’s were used in the same number of matches, and even then at the lowest and highest BR’s it looks different again too (as you can’t downtier a 1.0 etc., obviously).

And what people keep ignoring: 75% of all players will feel at a disadvantage of being uptiered even with perfect equal distribution of players, and only the top BR (25%) which are the dull downtiers think they’re in a good position. That’s simply human nature…

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It’s easy, it’s 50/50. you either get up tiered or not

Can we agree upon then reducing the concept of up-tier from br1.0 to lets say 0.7, this will open up many possibilities and more tanks will become viable.

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That… Is not probabilities. That’s possibilities, which is very different

NO!

You got 4 BR’s in every match, probability to get uptiered is 75%!

BUT only 25% get full uptier.

Example: Match is 5.7 to 6-7:

25% 5.7 🡢 full uptier
25% 6.0 🡢 partial uptier
25% 6.3 🡢 partial uptier
25% 6.7 🡢 full downtier

…and that’s only the theoretical optimal case where all BR’s are indeed distributed equally, which in real life is never the case…

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Your skill is also important when match making. So basically I think your “probability” can not convince others.

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Can’t even tell a joke anymore without getting the whole gang mad

Then declare it as joke…

I’ve been in innumeral discussions about this throughout my whole WT history, and the misconceptions here are very deep and persistent, so please understand the reaction. Didn’t want to attack you, just prevent misunferstandings.

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So uh… More uptiers = more skills and more downtiers = less skills? That explains the downtier of premium players I guess

Pensonal skill is also a part of BR system working? Not random?

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That explains the win streak / lose streak alternance that we, or at least I experience