I used to do very in-depth analysis of up/downtier probabilities based on Thunderskill data. Was always a lot of work and has it’s limitations, but it showed how those probabilities changed over time, and what BR’s suffer more than others.
It really depends a lot on the popularity of BR’s and thus of vehicles. IIRC when I did the analysis 5.7 was always in a difficult position, with significantly higher than theoretically to be expected uptier probabilities.
What really plays an important role here is not only the popularity of the BR you’re looking at, but especially of the neighboring BR’s. If 6.0-6.7 are very popular, but 4.7 to 4.3 less so, the probability for 5.7. to get uptiered is obviously higher.
Equal distribution of up/downtier probabilities over all BR’s would only be possible if all vehicles (or all BR’s were used in the same number of matches, and even then at the lowest and highest BR’s it looks different again too (as you can’t downtier a 1.0 etc., obviously).
And what people keep ignoring: 75% of all players will feel at a disadvantage of being uptiered even with perfect equal distribution of players, and only the top BR (25%) which are the dull downtiers think they’re in a good position. That’s simply human nature…
Can we agree upon then reducing the concept of up-tier from br1.0 to lets say 0.7, this will open up many possibilities and more tanks will become viable.
I’ve been in innumeral discussions about this throughout my whole WT history, and the misconceptions here are very deep and persistent, so please understand the reaction. Didn’t want to attack you, just prevent misunferstandings.
Some players called it as ELO when you matchmaking, not related to BR system but game matchmake. You can find some clips and video on Bilibili about some player test about it on War Thunder, but the data is player made as your data made by hand.
Matchmaking system is complex, and it would be possible that the system depends on your skill (recent KDs)/BR and more parameters.
So if you want to make something about BR uptier or downtier, you need to exclude other parameters could affect your data.
Is this an officially announced mechanic? This is the first I’ve ever heard of any sort of SBMM or ELO system in the game. My understanding is that officially there is no SBMM, or it has never been acknowledged at the very least.
Every MMO game has such system, but Gaijin hadn’t announced whether they have it or how theirs work.
That’s not meaning Gaijin has announced something. What I want to explain here is “OP’s test must exclude some parameters could affect his result due to the matchmaking system is complex”.
Thanks bro. u r doing a true hard work.
i want to add a little more:
Some nations had just only 1 or even no vehicles in specific BRs,such as FR4.3,Germ4.7.
“How many vehicles"can be a reference for"popularity”,bc players always want to play BRs which have diverse tanks.
I always noticed the same pattern where a dead br will have more downtiers, dead br like a br with single vehicle or something, used to be a time 10.7 was always full downtiers because it only has a T-90A there with a SPAA, until a lot of 10.3s got moved up then current 10.7 stopped seeing full downtiers.