Data Analysis #3: The arrival of Statshark answers some old questions

Excuses excuses excuses is all you got, mixing up data where you don’t like it is sure strengthens your position. Show what you was asked not excuses.

Please don’t feed the troll here either.

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So asking questions and never get the answers is trolling nowdays. Sure thing. And bringing statements that you can’t prove and running away calling people trolls is bravery not cowardice.

ps. What do you know about 7.0-7.3 if you never even have one?

Yeah, that winrate wasn’t accurate. I was being lazy and used the average vehicle winrate. I’d guess draws happen often enough in ground sim to not discount them.

For fun I also pulled April air vehicle sim stats. Unfortunately statshark doesn’t offer air vehicle stats for ground sim battles only. So air stats include PVE kills, non-matchmade lobbies, etc.

Interesting to see that ground kills + air kills nearly match up with deaths? For ground vehicles maybe it’s Gaijin tuning matchmaking, but I’m not sure how it happens for air vehicles. Just coincidence for both?

Also, in April ground vehicles played 11.5 million games and died 11.8 million times. Air vehicles played 7.7 million games and died 12 million times. Are pilots going into debt for backups?? lmaooooo pilots

Meanwhile in WT naval:
image

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Air sim you can play full lineups, no backups required. Those stats are for both sim modes added together, I believe.

It’s also important to remember when adding vehicle stats to get aggregates is each actual game victory is being counted multiple times, for each game in the lineup (as is each game). So you don’t actually need to presume draws are a huge factor, the number’s never going to be a perfect .50. I also mentioned people that there’s likely a victory advantage for people who can play both air and ground vehicles in Ground SB, which could also help explain the 0.484.

The other complicating factor here is, as you suggested, ground kills for air vehicles in sim will aggregate both kills of players on the ground in Ground SB and AI kills in Air SB (pretty sure it only counts players in the Air_kills though).

Another thing for air sim is that you can join a match in progress.

Last weekend when I tried to play, both of my games were like 20% tickets for my team (Axis) and 60% or even 80% tickets for allies.

I ended up staying because there weren’t any satisfying lobbies otherwise.

Result was 1st game: Spawn in fly to capture zone and game ends by time I arrive (+1 spawn, no death or kill) 2nd game:shooting a spitfire’s rudder off and putting it into a flatspin which turned into me getting an assist when he crashed. Game then ended again (+1 spawn, no death or kill).

Both games were also lost with minimal input from my end (Bf109E4, Fw190A4).

I think it counts any game you join against you for win rates by the way. Sometimes you end up joining lobby after lobby after lobby and leaving every time because all you see is bombers vs bombers and know it’d be boring or the lobby was advertised as 6 vs 6 and when you join it’s 7 vs 2 or even (my favourite) one team is completely absent and the tickets are counting down for a match that’s like 5 minutes old.

Another thing that affects air sim averages is zombers.

There’s a lot of people who never actually play air sim who spawn in top tier jets, fly in a straight line, drop bombs onto a base or airfield and eject. They do this due to the 2.3x score multiplier in events and ruin games and lobbies. Some people do this at prop tier as well but without immediately bailing (instead they bail the moment they see an enemy fighter to make people flying for actual gameplay get frustrated, give up and go to another lobby by denying kills).

Yes, because the primary number in this analysis is player sessions, rather than flyouts, Sim modes are going to be disadvantaged here to the degree it’s a measure of hours played or participation in a mode. For the same reason, game modes that are shorter than others will look to be more “popular” here than they are by some other metric.

Short term stats are abit swayed due to the BP main reward and most recent event, T-34-85 Parmesan both being for USSR ground.

Keep inond the newest data we have (Apr 1-30) is already nearly a month old.

The vehicle event sequence and major events will both have impacts. March saw both a big naval event and a major update, this is shown in the Naval RB figures climbing faster than baseline in March but losing that all again in April.

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Chart/data pretty much checks out to my gameplay experience. 9.3 air is always fighting premium harriers and t2s and when I played the spitfire mk 24 at 6.7 rarely got uptiers cause nobody plays the early 7.x jets. Played the t90 squadron vehicle a ton and always was fighting al khalids and fujis

Working on the best way to present the uptier/downtier data in one consolidated chart for easy reference (noting this will likely change with any decompression so Naval after the June update won’t matter):

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How do you copy cells from Statshark? I can select them OK - but Ctrl-C doesn’t seem to copy them??

I have access to some more sophisticated stuff. But for the layman, current Excel has some very good data-from-screenshot functionality. Or there’s always AI.

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Since StatShark released the stats for May, here is the monthly comparison of “Games Played” in different game modes:

Number of battle sessions in game modes with combined arcade and realistic data:

Ground is by far the most played game mode currently. Naval is in very bad condition.

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The significant growth in the ground mode, up in terms of players 50% over three months ago, to the point where ground RB is now over 50% of all games all by itself, is the real hidden story of War Thunder in 2025.

It’s remarkable to me how the air vehicle events don’t even make a dent. People just keep playing more and more ground. Honestly curious where all these new ground players are coming from.

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Another Stellar analysis! Do you plan on making any more? Maybe so we might be able to see some evolution (Time-graphs of distribution, for example)?

I suppose I’ll wait until naval gets its new 8.7 BR and the new Naval Airplane BR’s then I guess.

Been noodling around with the same data in other threads. Since you’re interested in naval you might be interested in these:

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Probably last chart til the update. I think the below shows what’s been happening to Naval over the time of the last update.

Quick recap: in late January, the naval matchmaker was changed to force 16v16 matches, with bots filling in for human players in both modes. In March, the Hornet’s Sting update changed AB aiming significantly, and also greatly increased the amount of SL earned by killing bots.

Statshark allows us to compare the naval AB and RB modes before and after the March changes.

As we know (see charts in OP), the majority of high-tier naval games are either a match BR of 5.7 or a match BR of 7.0. Splitting up the player data into those BRs allows us an apples-to-apples comparison between mid-tier (4.7-5.7) and high tier (6.0-7.0) play.

Subtracting all player deaths from all naval kills gives us an upper bound for how many bot deaths there were (upper bound because lower-tier ships brought up into these tiers would also be counted). Adding these to the human spawns gives us a minimum number of ship spawns (not counting bots or lowtier surface combatants who survived). This allows us to give an upper bound to the number of bots in matches (max %nonhuman). Dividing Min Ship Spawns by days in the month and 32-ships per match, 3-spawns per match gives us an absolute minimum of the number of games that were played in this mode and BR range in this month (min games/d). The actual number is larger than this, but it allows comparison. I also added a column for the % of kills by ships at this BR that were air kills, K/D, Deaths/spawn (D/Spawn), botkills/death (botkills/D), human kills/death (“Human” K/D"), and human kills/death with planes removed (Hship K/D)

A couple obvious conclusions:

*RB is still more botted than AB, but not by much, at top tier it’s basically the same amount now
*Gaijin bots are more common at higher tiers
*Loss in games played due to the Hornets Sting changes has been in midtiers in both modes and AB high tier, only RB high tier has been unaffected by the drop off in players
*Drop in the number of air players is more pronounced in AB than in RB at both mid and high tiers. Because the number of bots hasn’t changed, as much, that means its human players playing less air vehicles than before.
*RB is superior to AB in terms of both ship survival (deaths per spawn) and kills per game at both mid and high tiers (and hence likely SL and RP earnings even before better multipliers are factored in), probably attributable to the greater number of bots
*AB at 5.7, an average ship life will net <1 bot kill (botkill/D), and about half as much as toptier AB. Bot kills/death for RB at both 5.7 and 7.0 are significantly higher. The amount of humans killing humans (“human” K/D) is sufficiently closer, especially if you factor out the Air kills (“Hship K/D”), basically a little above the parity you’d expect overall in the system (the remaining residual presumably being mostly the general fuzziness introduced by the smaller numbers of lower-tier matches within the brackets)
*Human K/D vs bots in AB actually got WORSE with the new simplified aiming system, even not counting for the decline of air play

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Why don’t you show 1.0-4.3 data?