Played a lot of hours, and I am pretty good but certainly no pro. Add in that I refuse to use any cheats including bushes, it is just how I was raised, and I am average at best. I find that I get a disproportionate number of upteirs. I speculate it is because I won’t buy their cheats, but that is for a different discussion. So I decided two in a row is max. After two uptiers I back out of matches until it isn’t an uptier. I set up different brs with all ten countries and just go through them all. Get this, I recently went through every country at different brs more than once. 17 straight I had to back out of to find an even match (I don’t like full downtiers either so this was good). I was a stats major in college, the odds of that is .25 to the 17th power or 1 in 17 billion. Most don’t understand how big a billion is. 1 billion seconds = 31 years. This is impossible to say the least. Maybe time for Gaijin to disclose how they really do matchups. Maybe if we got everyone to bail on full uptiers they would be required to make fair matchups to keep the game afloat. I know it is a long shot, but I am going to continue with the 2 in a row max from here on out. As always, have fun good luck. If it isn’t fun find a way to make it fun. This makes it fun for me. :)
I can tell you without any math I rarely play same BR as my vehicle is mostly (75% minimum) is uptire and some downtires. Least downtires is when I play top tire like downtire is almost impossible
Downtiers and Uptiers are ultimately dependent on what more people are playing.
…which makes 100% sense mathematically in a system where there are 4 classes (BR’s) in one match.
75% would be the theoretical frequency of uptiers if the BR’s are distributed evenly. Example with BR 5.7-6.7:
25% 5.7 → uptier
25% 6.0 → uptier
25% 6.3 → uptier
25% 6.7 → downtier
So 75% uptier, 25% downtier.
Human psyche does the rest, as also the 6.3ers feel more at a disadvantage from the 6.7ers, ignoring the fact that they’re at the same time at an advantage over 5.7 and 6.0…
Yeah but dont you think if I lets say for example play rank my vehicle is???
Like If I have full line of 5.7 why should I play 6.0?? whats the point of having 5.7 and 6.0 if we play most of the time in same lobby??
You guys missed it, I had 10 different countries all with different brs queued up to eliminate the nonsense about who is playing what country at what br. As for the math, there is a 1 in 4 chance to have a full uptier, and I had 17 in a row. IE I was at 9.3 and the range was 9.3 to 10.3. I do think there is something to when you play well. Even in full uptiers I generally am in the top half and often top 3. When I have a few bad matches in a row it does seem they toss a bone. Regardless it would be so easy to add in a variable as to how many full uptiers in a row someone has seen. If it is 2, then lower the chance of another one. If it is 3, even lower. If it is 4 not chance for full uptier. The programming would be easy, crazy easy.
In your example I consider the 6.3 is in a downtier because 1/2 the enemies will be lower br. My example was full uptiers, which is a 1/4 chance. Again, the math is crazy, which shows it certainly is not random.
that confirms my theory that it puts you either in less strong teams with lower BR or lower skills if you play good…
Anecdote != Proof
No need math, just use logic. If we’re in sale season, I’ll call by that, a lot of people will buy X (10.3) vehicle, then, you play Y (11.3) vehicle, you’ll sure get more downtiers than uptiers. This also applies to event envolving vehicles, like the current even Winter Tales, where today, everyone can recieve, in the ground battles perspective, the T-80UD (478BE) is at 10.7, then 11.7 is a good option to play.
Your entire idea revolves around the big assumption that players are equally distributed across brs which is where your argument fails.
You missed that I had 10 countries all at different brs, ranging from 2.7 to 10.3. I was all over the map to eliminate that silly argument that everyone says. No single country or br was tried more than twice of the 17. This argument is old, and carries no weight.
Firstly the repetitions of different brs and nations still doesn’t mean anything it wouldn’t have been a constant 25% chance for a full uptier. There is no way the odds of 17 full uptiers is 10^-11 its probably 10^-4 or less.
Secondly this is still anecdotal evidence with no information on what brs and nations were selected.
Thirdly it just doesn’t make any sense for a more advanced matchmaker what is the dev’s motivation?
My theory on why? To frustrate average players and get them to buy bushes, crew upgrade, and eventually the expensive cheats that I suspect they get a cut from. I have bought a few premium tanks, and don’t buy the stuff that really adds up. I am not as profitable as the guy who gets mad, doesn’t even realize he is in uptiers, and tries to buy his way out of it. It actually would be a great business model. Other than that I don’t know, but I do know that full uptier happen at all brs with all countries way too much. I know you want to explain it away, but you cannot. And yes I have a degree in statistics, my math is right. odds of rolling a 1 17 times on a 4 sided dice is 0.25 to the 17th power. Same odds of a full uptier 17 times in a row if it indeed random. It is not. Why we can only speculate.
That’s some crazy conspiracy.
But you have a bunch of premiums so why are you getting uptiered so much?
But it’s not random the matchmaker doesn’t allocate up-tiers it pools players to allocate matches so it won’t be a fixed 0.25 chance and hence it’s probably not 1 in 17 billion.
Doesn’t matter how it is doing it, at some point the uptiers and the downtiers have to even out to a normal distribution unless there are variables that we don’t know about, like skill level, money spent, etc. If a random sample is taken across countries and brs then however it is pooling doesn’t matter. I get that my sample wasn’t a perfect random, but I would bet my 401k that if I took the time to do it we would see there is a factor we don’t know. The regression analysis would tell us we cannot predict because we don’t have all the variables. I have been playing this game for 10 years, and it has always been skewed toward full uptiers, and once I really started noticing it I recognized it is extreme. Maybe you spend money, maybe you aren’t a good player, maybe there is some other factor that is different than me, but there is no arguing that the results are skewed. Maybe not a full 17 billion to 1 but even with a somewhat flawed sample it is outside the realm of random possibilities.
No proof, bad experiment, no hypothesis.
My mistake, thought I was speaking with an adult.
- You believe in a conspiracy that Gaijin get a cut from cheat sellers
- You will flaunt your Stats degree like it gives credibility to your argument yet refuse to follow a proper statistical method and instead rely on your own anecdote.
Sorry I confused you. I really tried to dumb it down, but clearly was unsuccessful. Good news, Saturday morning cartoons tomorrow! Enjoy!