That first launch looked pretty good, but I’ve tried doing the same launch several times and I think I know what the problem is.
So, while my explanation of the sphere centered on the target area still sorta is true, a better way to think of it is to imagine a cone in front of the LGW’s flight direction with increasing range the closer you designate. This way you also acccount for the LGW FOV. In this case, using CCIP marker in ARB mode, it can already be seen that at this altitude, at this firing angle and this speed, the skipper overshoots the target if we just look purely ballistically, so my guess is that the Skipper’s seeker FOV never overlapped with the laser spot, even though it is technically within seeker acquisition range.
Like this:
Spoiler
In this case I guess you could’ve used the CCIP rocket sight. In any case, at ranges that are close to ~4.8km mark (6km is relatively close) and you have high speed (like here you have 1000 km/h), you can more or less fire directly at the target. In the earlier report video, I believe you fired from 8km away at like 500 km/h speed, so it undershot by a lot, here it overshot instead.
Ngl, sim doesn’t have as good of a way of telling how to launch the skipper as in ARB, so I guess you just have to develop some feel for it. Or use the rocket sight for closer range (proportional to launch altitude too I guess) high speed launches, and maybe use the bomb CCRP sight as a guide for extra long range launches, although I can’t say how much
Also I tried plotting the purely ballistic paths of the GBU-16 (in orange) and Skipper (in green), with the blue point being roughly where the laser spot is, on statshark. Kinda suprisngly, or not, GBU-16 doesn’t differ a huge ton from Skipper, so you can probably use the CCRP as a guide for Skipper pretty well. Also can be seen that from level launch as in the first launch, both would’ve overshot the target, as their seeker FOV would not have allowed them to see the laser spot.
Spoiler
Take it with a grain of salt though, statshark is not always completely accurate.