Data Analysis: what is the actual average player's score per mode? (and how long will it take you to do this event)

You are not forced into these events…

It’s not an option to participate to begin with.

And ill come back to what I said about comparing the time for the event vehicle to a Rank 7 vehicle at 280k RP in a TT… its still easier than that. by 2-3x

What a completely absurd and pointless comparison, you don’t have to research a TT vehicle in 2 weeks, now do you?

If they made the event ANY easier for lower rank players and lower skilled players you create compounding issue of not only do you risk reducing lower BR player count/matches played because they all jumped to 10.0 thanks to a free vehicle event but you also run the risk of pushing them out of the game because they dont know how to play 10.0+ and get dumped on by the above average player.

THEN PUT THE SYSTEMS IN PLACE THAT PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING.

Don’t put this vehicle in the event, don’t allow everyone to partake and don’t allow people to play an event vehicle without a lineup, that is what would happen if they cared, but they don’t… they specifically even exclude one vehicle lineups from being crew locked.

And AB players get 3x crew XP for the last 10 years for no reason either and don’t have to deal with all the nonsense of RB balancing, CAS and everything.

That graph was actually from my own first attempt at this kind of sampling, a couple years ago now.

What it doesn’t control for is the variation in player skill, because it was only a count of raw score by mode for sample size n. The problem with that is it assumed equivalent distribution of skill for the sample of players across modes. The method here, which factors in average placement as well, is probably the more accurate estimation. Sample sizes are actually basically the same, just method is improved now.

4 Likes

What does that have to do with what we are discussing here? We’re discussing score based events and the fact that multipliers screw Ground AB players which are the majority of players in this game.

If you want to discuss balance and CAS I invite you to check the Arcade section, there are plenty of threads about it in this and in the old forum, it’s probably the main subject there.

1 Like

You did a great work and I thank you for the time you spent. It just proved what I already knew since the first events like these, especially when I keep reading some saying how easy and fast the event was for them. Gaijin completely ruined events for the average Ground AB player.

1 Like

The real question is, how the devs determined these multipliers? I’m sure they didn’t just set them randomly, there had to be data to back it up.

It’s very strange these multipliers never changed. Especially in the last 2 years we had many score changes that mainly affected Arcade battles.
We had an update that decreased the kill and assist score up to 90% depending from the BR difference between you and the enemy (this mainly affected Air Arcade, where many players use lower BR planes to complete lineups), base bombing score lowered, score for destroying pillboxes lowered, number of assists in Ground modes decreased. And surely more things I just don’t remember anymore.

But nothing changed with the multipliers. They set them once and never recalculated them. Maybe that’s the problem? Unfortunately, there is no way to contact the devs, so we will never know why the multipliers are set this way, we can only speculate.

Air Realistic is the weakest point of these calculations. Usually after 5 minutes half the team is already outside of the battle, because you have just 1 life in this game mode.

During the last WINTER event I actually started playing Air Realistic. As a complete newbie, who never played Air Realistic, I could still complete the event quicker in this game mode than in Air Arcade, which says a lot imo. I used strike aircraft with bombs, bomb bases, use missiles, force head-ons, die, change battle, repeat. It’s so effective score-wise (and especially RP-wise), I was seriously shocked.

2 Likes

Capturing points got their score reduced by a lot if you are not the one getting there first, and even if you are the first one you can get less than 300 score points. They also changed how assists work, not talking about the same you just did, but I remember that they changed which damaged modules would get you an assist if that tank got destroyed.

Agreed. Those stats were from length of game, so they’d always be the maximum in that sense. I think everyone agrees Air games on average are shorter than Ground. Naval, as you and I discussed I think the numbers we had for this two years ago from server replays were skewed by a lot of low-tier, very fast matches (the ones that are 90% bots with two real players), and we didn’t have any data for RB. If someone wants to try and come up with a better method I’d love to recalculate. Best estimate we have so far? Yes.

The fact the multipliers have not changed I think goes to proving a point I’ve made elsewhere. The BR multipliers could still have a factor of controlling for different score amounts (per hour or per game). I won’t say they’re entirely meant to be incentivization to get people to try new things. But I’ve come to believe the mode multipliers are ENTIRELY about incentivization, to get players to move out of the most popular modes into less popular ones, nothing more than that. There is no justification in any of the samples, like this one, to suggest otherwise. They WANT a tilted playing field, luring people to RB from AB; else they would have untilted it, or at least fine tuned it more than they have.

1 Like

During one of those crafting events I tried to do a couple of matches it in Naval AB without playing it since we only had a single naval tree, so before having bluewater and coastal fleets. On my first match without having a clue of what I was doing I got 2 chests of materials due to the big multipliers, while in Ground AB I would have to play 2-3 matches to get the same while being in top of my team.

Yes, but you also have to remember, Naval Arcade battles are much longer than Air Arcade or Ground Arcade. In my experience, depending from the BR, Naval Arcade battles takes about 15-20 minutes at average. Air and Ground Arcade battles are much shorter (usually below 10 minutes).

But yeah, it’s much easier to gain the score in Naval battles. You rarely die from one mistake (unless you are unlucky with ammo explosion), and the game pace is much slower. You basically do less and gain more. That’s why I always preferred to play Naval than other game modes (eg. during the Crafting events). I honestly think the 1.9 multiplier in Naval Arcade actually makes sense. But of course I’m not denying that Naval is the easiest mode to grind events.

PS. I play Arcade game mode and I put my better battles on YouTube channel, so if someone wants, there is a possibility to check battle times and scores on my channel (at the end of the battle I include battle summary screens from the last 2 years):

Spoiler

https://www.youtube.com/@Poul/videos

1 Like

I remember watching your Naval videos and I’m pretty sure you were the reason why I tried Naval AB in that event. I used to watch a couple of your videos but YT algorithm probably never suggested me another for a while now, I thought I got you subscribed on YT, I have now.

1 Like

You got it the wrong way round.
In War Thunder any experienced player can jump into lower BR vehicles and play against newer players without any possibility for them to avoid it. An event vehicle of higher BR would only allow but not force a newer player to willingly play against expectedly more experienced players.

I don’t think they want to lure Arcade players into Realistic. They don’t really need to do that, especially the RP in Realistic is much better (your progress is quicker there). But they probably don’t want Realistic players to switch to Arcade during events, so slightly higher multipliers in Realistic game mode would definitely make sense.

But right now the difference is too big, so I understand where your theory comes from. I can’t explain this difference, but I don’t know which data they used to determine these multipliers. You surely remember in late 2021 the way score works was changed completely. I still have old battles, where I gained over 8k score in Air Arcade playing a bomber. Maybe data they used included such results as well, even if such results are impossible after the changes?
I’m just trying to say, there could be different reasons for the current situation. We just don’t know, it’s all speculation. I’m not saying you are wrong, but your guess is as good as mine.

Thank you, but I’m not trying to advertise my channel here. Just saying, there is an option to quickly check Arcade battle result screens if needed.

1 Like

No, it just means they flew out in a Nesher or a Shahak and that was their top tier for that game.

There’s no way you could filter for users and produce data of any value. Every user would be counted 1-4 times depending on how many uptiers and downtiers they got. The only way to do this from a server replay scrape is battles.

Your determination to con people into uptiering and becoming your food for these events, and to keep your personal coupon price as high as possible for future events as well, certainly seems consistent. It also seems pretty reprehensible, tbh. But like I said, I’m not your judge. But I will continue to point out, using the available data, when you’re factually wrong about what average players score and what you score.

Nicely done. I’d say this tracks with my experience. I’d call myself above average and while I don’t time it I usually fall somewhere between 1-2 hours per day to hit the quota depending on how good of a night it is (in GRB with a top tier lineup).

Then its already a flawed statistic as its including Aircraft into what was suppose to be a data set for Ground… even if said aircraft is in said ground lineup

So thanks for confirming why that data set is flawed and is practically worthless, unless they filter out the duplicate user accounts within the same BR ranges then its utterly pointless “claiming” 260k players in top tier when that 260k could easily have “x amount” of duplicate users because they fall in the same range as other BR statistics in that data set :D

I got the point he was making but surely he should have seen the issue with a claim like that considering 260k at top tier makes no sense when gaijins own online player count has never peaked above 260k… the most its has been is 240-250k yet we all know other BRs are populated too. just yet again proving the inaccuracies of that data set (if it was player count and not battles) which my guess is the data set was battles as it ties in very closely to the Data project I linked.

how does conning people benefit me… the only ones who are conning anyone are you who want a coupon for less than 2 hours of leg work and more than likely expect a quick sale to use on the store which devalues it for anyone who actually wants to sell it for large chunk on the market.

As I pointed out in the other thread some events I never took part in because surprise… didnt interest me, if I was so interested in “coupons” and making a profit why do have VMF-232 in my lineup which is worth 80GJN and was worth substantially more prior, or the C2A1 which is worth 99GJN or the QN for China :D

Spoiler



You make a claim and its instantly made false because of this fact alone, if I was so out for profit why would I use coupons from said events that monetary value wise are already worth more and would easily net several premiums in return if I sold them to begin with.

I said in the other thread that any below a score of 1000 is below average, someone else did the math and there average score in the match was around 1200 give or take and when accounting for longer match times ended up being around 1000 :D what you proved was nothing, it simply proved what I said and that was if your doing less than 1000 score on average as a player it means you as a player are not contributing much to a match so your grind is going to be harder and no event should be balanced around that metric because you might as well not even bother with events.

Gaijin wont change this metric further as its been changed to a good state, its going to be funny when the Air event rolls around and watch people complain even further with that one

Then its already a flawed statistic as its including Aircraft into what was suppose to be a data set for Ground… even if said aircraft is in said ground lineup

10.3 is an SPAA.

the data set was battles

I don’t know why you keep claiming its battles when its clearly stated it’s based on a 100k replays so that’s cant be a million+ battles.

In what was literally a “10.0 bracket” and the 10.3 had an entirely different set of figures… please read what I put to your initial stat posting…

Israel shouldnt even have “any” value in the 10.0 BR bracket on that graph by the youtuber if its player count because they DO NOT have a 10.0 lineup, its either 9.3 or 10.3 with one 9.7 and one 10.3. hence I rebuttaled that statistic as being battles not player count.

There is a reason a lot of statistics use a “range” of 1.0 from low to high in all BRs because it removes this confusion when posting statistics.

100000 replays that have at least 16v16 so 32 players in total, thats 3.2 million players and considering the BR ranges will intersect, do you know how many of those so called “player count” is exlcuding duplicate users because again gaijins own peak concurrent player count has never even gone above 260k :D so you claiming 260k factually isnt possible at this point.

And your still ignoring the WT Data Project battles graph which if you bothered to look closer at it, has an almost identical pattern in its graphing to the one by this youtuber who I might add NEVER claimed it was player count, he never made the claim or how hes filtered out the figures.

Not saying his stats are wrong, I’m saying it has issues because he doesnt clarify much of anything, what it is, did he filter out anything to ensure the data sat didnt include duplicates, was it 100,000 random replays from random accounts or based on the top 100,000 players or etc. or did he pull multiple replays from multiple accounts at once and crossreference the data.

If you wanna post graghs and claim numbers you better make sure its concrete because the moment I saw the gragh it already had issues in its formatting

To put it a better way, Ill use the Israel BR 10.0 graph having “7”

If we assume that is player count right, how did the youtube seperate the values.

Because lets say those 7 accounts have the Mk2D and a Nesher in there lineup, so on paper its 10.0 but has a 9.7 Tank, did he exclude that metric from 9.7 if it got downtiered? or does he still place that player count metric in the 10.0 cell.

Now do you see why this graph more than likely cannot be player count and if it was there are bound to multiple entries in multiple BRs that will surely intersect one another based on the BR of that lineup if its up or down tiered

Gaijins own peak concurrent player count has never even gone above 260k :D so you claiming 260k factually isnt possible at this point.

What does any of this have to do with peak player count? It’s counted over several days as well.

this youtuber who I might add NEVER claimed it was player count, he never made the claim or how hes filtered out the figures.

From the replays he clearly has all the information about the players, their score, their nation, their vehicles being used, so it’s not just battles.

it 100,000 random replays from random accounts or based on the top 100,000 players or etc. or did he pull multiple replays from multiple accounts at once and cross reference the data.

From all the replays from several days as they come by.

Because lets say those 7 accounts have the Mk2D and a Nesher in there lineup, so on paper its 10.0 but has a 9.7 Tank, did he exclude that metric from 9.7 if it got downtiered? or does he still place that player count metric in the 10.0 cell.

There’s always going to issues with determining up and downtiers because it is determined by the highest BR vehicles and people can have a top BR vehicle in a lineup but not use it, and it can end up being listed as an uptier.

Either way with a sample size this large I have no concerns about anomalies, which is exactly what those ‘7’ could be.