Well, here we go again! Gaijin clearly has no chill whatsoever, so just a month and a half after the last time we gambled, here’s some more gambling! War Thunder is quickly becoming a casino.
Anyway, Gaijin, as usual, is not going to reveal the drop chances because it benefits them for the chances to be secret. If no one knows the exact chances, they’re more likely to buy. So, let’s calculate them. This is not new, it’s the 4th time I’ve done this, you know the drill by now. I have made a spreadsheet of all the possible items that can be dropped. The spreadsheet does all of the math, so all I need to know is how many of each prize was obtained and the spreadsheet will calculate the average value per drop, the chance of it dropping within its drop category, the overall drop chance, the SL spent, and the net SL change.
Below you can find the spreadsheet with all of the information and the form to submit information to. You can submit information in the form of an image, drawing, spreadsheet, video, or just a tally to the form below. You can also submit your tally in a comment to this post. I have added a new rule this time though: you must submit a full set of drops. I will not accept submissions of single drops (e.g. just a vehicle or just a decal). This is also why I have allowed y’all to submit prize tallies. Single drop submissions skew the data heavily, as seen in the Toolbox drop chance spreadsheet I did where the chance of a vehicle was supposedly around 1.57%, a number that is much higher than reality. So to avoid that, you need to submit a full drop set.
I don’t exactly hope you enjoy this, if for no other reason than the fact that I fundamentally disagree with these boxes’ existence, but I do hope you take part in this because everyone should have this information.
Thank you. I’ll enter them when I find the time. I try to do as much as I can as quickly as I can, time is an issue for me though because I’m finishing up a scientific paper for publication rn.
I was looking at your submission. I’m going to need to know exactly which orders, wagers, and boosters you got. I need to know because your orders, wagers, and boosters are a combined 198 drops and I need to account for those or the results will be skewed.
hmm, Mine only go back so far so i can’t account for everything wagers / orders wise. Only to a point they stop showing. Boosters i can as i didn’t have any at the starting point.
Boosters
RP boosters
20% - 23
30% - 13
50% - 10
SL boosters
20% - 11
30% - 7
50% - 4
Wagers
Best Squad - 5
Unstoppable - 1
Destroy 5 units - 7
destroy 10 units - 3
wingman - 6
battle victory - 1
Orders
Avenger - 6
be the best - 3
Jack of all trades - 1
Anti mech - 3
Blind hunt - 1
AAA - 1
Interesting. This has only 38 of the 73 orders and wagers, but it has all 68 of the boosters. Sorry, but I don’t think I can count them unless you can find a way to give all of the drops.
Yeah it won’t show all of the orders & wagers. It cuts off at a certain point after re-logging or playing i think. Like it doesn’t show the vehicles now either but thankfully i screenshot any high tier prizes.
Just bumping this to the top to remind people to submit drops so we can calculate this, especially because it seems that they have changed around some of the booster drop chances this time.
how do i fill this out? i just spent 2mil SL, the most amount of SL i’ve ever had. and all i got was a handful of 20 - 30% boosters and some wagers i will never use…
am i doing something wrong?? there is no way the drop rates are this bad??? do you have to pick a category or something??
even legitimate scam gambling websites give you a payout at some point to encourage you to keep gambling. this is crazy to me
The drop chances are that bad. It’s generally about 1 vehicle every 200 boxes, according to the last 3 times I did this. If you have screenshots of your drops or you have everything recorded and tallied, you can submit those.
This might throw a wrench in the calculations, but I’d only wanted to do 10-20 boxes. Snakes are cool, Year of the snake, Just a funny “haha i like snakes snake box loot.”
With my first 10 boxes, I got the 38cm Sturmtiger, on the tenth, and have a screenshot as proof of my account, but was not recording video.
That’s not “throwing a wrench in the calculations,” this is just how the calculations work. As long as you can submit all 20 drops, they can be counted. I cannot accept just the Sturmtiger, but if you submit all 20, I’ll add them.
