Community project: Calculating the Snake Box drop changes

Well, here we go again! Gaijin clearly has no chill whatsoever, so just a month and a half after the last time we gambled, here’s some more gambling! War Thunder is quickly becoming a casino.

Anyway, Gaijin, as usual, is not going to reveal the drop chances because it benefits them for the chances to be secret. If no one knows the exact chances, they’re more likely to buy. So, let’s calculate them. This is not new, it’s the 4th time I’ve done this, you know the drill by now. I have made a spreadsheet of all the possible items that can be dropped. The spreadsheet does all of the math, so all I need to know is how many of each prize was obtained and the spreadsheet will calculate the average value per drop, the chance of it dropping within its drop category, the overall drop chance, the SL spent, and the net SL change.

Below you can find the spreadsheet with all of the information and the form to submit information to. You can submit information in the form of an image, drawing, spreadsheet, video, or just a tally to the form below. You can also submit your tally in a comment to this post. I have added a new rule this time though: you must submit a full set of drops. I will not accept submissions of single drops (e.g. just a vehicle or just a decal). This is also why I have allowed y’all to submit prize tallies. Single drop submissions skew the data heavily, as seen in the Toolbox drop chance spreadsheet I did where the chance of a vehicle was supposedly around 1.57%, a number that is much higher than reality. So to avoid that, you need to submit a full drop set.

I don’t exactly hope you enjoy this, if for no other reason than the fact that I fundamentally disagree with these boxes’ existence, but I do hope you take part in this because everyone should have this information.

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Just submitted a bunch from around 14m SL, Thanks for doing this again o/

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Thank you. I’ll enter them when I find the time. I try to do as much as I can as quickly as I can, time is an issue for me though because I’m finishing up a scientific paper for publication rn.

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That’s more interesting than the snake stuff, can I read it ?

It’s not done so it’s embargoed research rn. Also, I don’t feel like revealing my actual name on forums.

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I was looking at your submission. I’m going to need to know exactly which orders, wagers, and boosters you got. I need to know because your orders, wagers, and boosters are a combined 198 drops and I need to account for those or the results will be skewed.

Wonder why :))))))))

hmm, Mine only go back so far so i can’t account for everything wagers / orders wise. Only to a point they stop showing. Boosters i can as i didn’t have any at the starting point.

Boosters

RP boosters
20% - 23
30% - 13
50% - 10

SL boosters
20% - 11
30% - 7
50% - 4

Wagers

Best Squad - 5
Unstoppable - 1
Destroy 5 units - 7
destroy 10 units - 3
wingman - 6
battle victory - 1

Orders

Avenger - 6
be the best - 3
Jack of all trades - 1
Anti mech - 3
Blind hunt - 1
AAA - 1

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Interesting. This has only 38 of the 73 orders and wagers, but it has all 68 of the boosters. Sorry, but I don’t think I can count them unless you can find a way to give all of the drops.

Yeah it won’t show all of the orders & wagers. It cuts off at a certain point after re-logging or playing i think. Like it doesn’t show the vehicles now either but thankfully i screenshot any high tier prizes.

Happy to help regardless :D

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I am also going to add that, as usual, I am going to be tallying my own drops in here too.