I thought about this from a less biased perspective as someone else made similar points, but I’ll be honest, I can’t see the logic. (Not in your argument but the programme).
Just cancelling was the only logical decision. As a thought exercise I took the argument that to be fair, the Army didn’t concretely know they had no IFV in the future, CVRT replacement was the immediate thing. But then I researched the timeline. Initially, discrediting the IFV side of things is absolutely right about the FRES SV tender. But then it changes. And no, not with the benefit of hindsight.
Should’ve cancelled in 2021. Reason? In 2018 the issues with noise vibrations were internally noted in a report by DE&S, in 2020 they were made public. In March 2021 the Commons Defence Committee released a report with the headline calling it ‘A chronic exercise in programme mismanagement’ blaming primarily the manufacturer and then also the Army. In March 2021 Warrior CSP was ALSO cancelled.
That was the point in time to kill the whole thing, because now you have no IFV either, and you know you need one, you have an AFV-Recce, that’s failed due to your ridiculous requirements and an incompetent manufacturer. Same month, no hindsight needed both things have failed. At that point you go we an IFV can do both, won’t be as good of a scout but will be an IFV and by virtue of that more useful to the wider British Army.
Even though IFV’s were originally a factor, they became one, and we had (and still have to a lesser degree) the perfect out.
Buy the Wales line from GDLSUK. Similar has been done before. Have a clean break, absolve them of coming for further costs involved in their failure to deliver the contract requirements in exchange for a reasonable offer by BAE to purchase the Merthyr Tydfil facility.
This is now harder because some collosal imbecile (that’s the nicest damn thing I can say) authorised IOC which absolved GDLSUK of their major contract point.
The Wales site for GDLSUK is also only an assembly and integration line, there’s no manufacture there. The same is true of CV-90 license production. There’s next to no skill gap and there’s no difference in staffing.You can have a clean break there with GDLS UK after only spending 3.2bn (if we cancelled in 2021) which is 1.3bn less than currently which means ~270 CV-90’s more like 230 when factoring UK turret and manufacture, then buy the line from them.
I’m biased towards CV-90 as it’s a BAE product and I simply think that it’s better. But Lynx would also be suitable.