What are the chances of getting a vehicle from the SL crates?

Bought around 500 toolbox crates and only got boosters and wagers, not even decals. I met a guy and appereantly he got the object 279 after opening 20 of them. What are the chances of actually getting a vehicle? 0.0001%?

1 Like

Very low. It’s all luck, and I have learned the hard way not to buy. I encourage you and all that see this to also not purchase them. Maybe if you have an uber surplus of SL or in small quantity’s everyone in a while, but not in whole sale

1 Like

Chances of a vehicle are about 1/400 I think. Nothing from 500 is insanely unlucky and I’m really sorry for you. The Object 279 is about 1/10000.

I’ve opened 376 boxes and got 1 vehicle, the BI, at box 232, so the chances aren’t great.

This is all just gambling in the end, and as the saying goes, the house always wins.


I recently got F4F Early from a crate!

First vehicle I’ve ever got from one of these… and, in total (counting all crate events), I may hehe opened like 300 crates hahah (about 50 per event).

I didn’t even consider getting a vehicle a possibility before unexpectedly getting this plane suddenly.

Congratulations on your first vehicle. You’re very lucky. I’ve only ever gotten 2: The Tandem Mai at box 60-ish of the Dragon Box and the BI at box 232 for the toolbox. I’m going for 1 more vehicle in the toolbox. Currently on box 378.

1 Like

The only thing we can say with any certainty is that the odds are greater than 0.00001%. We know this because that’s the odds of getting the 279, which Gaijin have said is lower than the odds of other vehicle.

To put that in perspective, in order to have a stastically 100% chance to get a 279 (Not a guarantee by any means, just a statistical calculation), you’d need to buy 10,000,000 crates. That’s 60,000,000,000 SL worth. I’m a pretty good player with premium and a comfortable SL surplus, and even I tend to hang around the high 20/low 30 million SL range. 60 billion is insane.

IMO, there really needs to be a mercy mechanic for these boxes to make the gamble worth it. Something like a guaranteed vehicle every couple hundred boxes. Considering that there’s a lot of vehicles in there that are either bad or unwanted (Looking at you, boats), burning huge quantities of SL just for the chance of getting what is most likely a mid or bad prize isn’t an attractive gamble.

Also, the boosters should have a longer expiry timer on them. That, or no diminishing returns. I know Gaijin aren’t going to make them last forever like the previous boosters, but expecting players to burn through 100 boxes worth of boosters in 2 days is absurd. Make it a week or so, and I’d be more willing to partake.

1 Like

That exists, but only for the GE boxes during the winter event. They would never do that for SL boxes because it’s gambling. They need you to keep throwing your SL into the void.

Well, as an end result, I end up sitting on my dragon’s horde of SL, because I don’t consider the gamble worth it. If they want this to be a deflationary measure for their in game economy, they need to make it fair enough that people buy into it.


Let me rephrase that: for the system of gambling to work for Gaijin, they need you to keep throwing SL into the void. I disagree with it on every level. It’s bad and highly predatory.


I get vehicle in every 200 box. Thats how i got my 279.

1 Like

No clue how you’re so lucky.

Got M60 AMBT, DB-7 and BAR decoration from like 20 dragon boxes myself, but with toolbox, im down some 15 mil SL and nothing but wagers lmao.

Its random.

after 6 years and countless crates from all events, I recently got my last one, all up I must’ve opened over 2000 and I only got the 1.0 PakTrack (Sd.Kfz 251/10) in a non sellable coupon. So yeah not high

1 Like

I have gotten 2 rank 1 vehicles for this event after opening 400 crates. The last time i got a vehicle from these crates, it was a leo that i already had.

for me - 0%

Ive opened about 900 to 1000 in the past half a year and although the chances have gone up the most I’ve gotten was a couple decorators.
So uhh. I guess I’m just unlucky

I’ve bought 50-100 crates everytime they come around since the soccer ball piñata one a year ago, have never gotten a vehicle