I wonder if we’ll clear 2000 voters. Only 120 away from it as of this message…
That being said, we’re now at almost 6000 replies and nobody has provided any conclusive evidence to disprove my conclusion in the original post. Gaijin also seems to just be outright avoiding it like the plague, despite the fact that IF they actually had any info besides what’s already been presented in this thread, they could’ve provided it and the threads general question of “was the Kh-38MT ever actually known to be operational?” would have been resolved with a “yes”, which would have been favorable to them, suggesting Gaijin does not in fact have any new info, knows/realizes the missile does not meet their own in-game addition standards for aircraft weaponry, and intend to kill this thread with silence.
One possibility is that they are praying the upcoming update with the 5th gen IIR SAM’s like IRIS-T SLS will “resolve” the issue, which it wont imo.
My 2 cents about the upcoming GBAD systems
The only confirmed system to be coming that will face the Kh-38MT, the IRIS-T SLS, sits at a meager 4 missiles with 12km range, putting it in the approximate same category as the Type 81C already seen in-game, trading better missiles for half the missile load. The Type 81C, though capable, is not a top tier SAM, and there is no real reason to believe the SLS will be either when every major air threat at top tier has access to thermals and ordinance that outranges its missiles, while also carrying enough ordinance to just oversaturate its defenses. Ironically enough, the biggest losers of the update in terms of CAS if the new SAM’s seen are all “SLS-class” weapons will be the germans, as the only nation without access to standoff F&F options (brits/italians/japs all have access to the Gripen with 4xAGM-65’s, they’ll be the second worst off), they would be the only ones to be effectively shut out by this system while every other nation could continue without much change to their usual CAS routine.
On the flip side, I seem to remember gaijin stating the SPYDER AIO is already complete and they just weren’t adding it to the game because it was “too strong”. This system is, on the upper end of its range spectrum, in the 40km+ range class (using the I-DERBY ER), alongside options like the IRIS-T SLM (which afaik does not have an AIO option). What’s more likely though, would be the P5 (15km range) and I-DERBY SR (20km range) SPYDER AIO, the MICA-VL (20km range), CAMM (25km range), and potentially SLAMRAAM (25km range?), although I think only the SPYDER, and potentially the CAMM and SLAMRAAM have AIO options (the IRIS-T SLS also does, but its objectively not even worth discussing considering its paltry range and missile count).
SPYDER, CAMM, and MICA-VL all carry 8 missiles, which means they could theoretically survive a saturation attack, though it would cost them nearly their entire interceptor load, rendering them useless if there are more than 2 attackers in the sky. SLAMRAAM seems to sit between 4-6 missiles, with up to 5 AMRAAMs or 4 AMRAAMs + 2 9X’s being seen, suggesting it might be able to contend 1 saturation attack.
Not that it matters, since they never have to actually face Kh-38MTs, but the Russians would likely be getting a new Pantsir system, pushing them up to the 30-40km range class, still with more missiles than all other nations, alongside the 30mm cannons and direct fire capability, continuing their SAM supremacy.
The Chinese are known to be getting the Type 625E with 8x FB-10A missiles. 17km range alongside a stabilized 30mm gatling gun. This would surpass the Pantsir if there is no new Pantsir added this update, not that it matters much since afaik China also never faces the Russians either.
Unless they are adding systems in the IRIS-T SLM category (which I highly HIGHLY doubt are coming), I see no reason to believe the new SAM systems will actually provide any reprieve for ground forces players, they will just punish bad CAS players that push into their range too aggressively and that’s about it, and even then, a one month-ish period of adaptation will likely nullify their effect on the game.
All that being said, regardless of what gaijins position is on the issue, they should at the very least provide a response of some kind. Be it “we are keeping it in-game, screw off” or “we’re looking into the issue”, or “the upcoming update will have a lot of new SAM systems being added, we wish to wait and see how these impact CAS effectiveness before making a decision” or whatever other corpo response they wanna slap into this thread, but saying absolutely nothing is just insulting and bad PR.