After some investigation, it turns out that the original values for the Ho-203 HEFI round were correct.
The reference model most likely did not have the right dimensions.
Updated the model and the values:
45g RDX → 30g RDX
12-16g Flash powder → 8g Flash powder
Indeed. Proportions of incendiary chance and damage are completely blown out of the water and Incendiary bullets or shells have no clear advantage over API in War Thunder.
There either needs to be a system that bases incendiary chance and damage on caliber and ammunition type or incendiary content needs to be modeled.
I would prefer the later, for more accurate depiction of ammunition.
Spoiler
.50cal API-T with 1.16g Incendiary filler only has a 0.6% chance to cause a kill within 5 minutes with damage to fuel tanks and structure.
20mm M96 with 10.8g Incendiary filler has a 5% chance in comparison. Thats more than 8 times the likeliness.
Changed MG 151/20 API penetration from 20mm to 24mm.
Compared to the softer APHE and the regular AP, the API was hardened to a greater degree.
Presumably to make the shell break appart more easily, to release the WP, which also increased the penetration performance.