Matchmaking analysis: Uptier, Downtier

So, the last time I created a thread like this—because I was frustrated that I’d gotten a full uptier in nine consecutive matches—I went a little overboard and analyzed my last 75 matches in an Excel spreadsheet, and the following statistics came out.
The categories are as follows:
Full uptier (+1.0)
Uptier (+0.7–0.6)
Own tier (+0.3-0.4)
Full downtier (-1.0)
I played in the following BRs:
5.7 Germany
9.0 China
9.3 Japan and Italy
10.7 Russia
The results are as follows:
5.7: 2 full uptiers, 1 uptier
9.0: 5 full uptiers, 2 uptiers, 6 own tiers, 1 full downtier
9.3: 21 full uptiers, 14 uptiers, 9 own tiers, 4 full downtiers
10.7: 4 full uptiers, 1 uptier, 5 own tiers

% results:
Full Uptier in 42.6% of matches
Uptier in 24% of matches
Own tier in 26.6% of matches
Full downtier in 6.6% of matches

Results distributed by BR % for disadvantaged matches (+1.0; +0.7–0.6):
5.7: 100%
9.0: 50%
9.3: 73%
10.7: 50%

I’ll say it again: I really love this game, the mechanics, and the gameplay. People might say it’s a “skill issue,” but even a blind person can see that something is seriously wrong with the matchmaking system. In my opinion, the most enjoyable matches are the “own tier” ones, with tanks of similar skill levels, etc… Playing against higher tiers can also be enjoyable, because the game clearly allows you to compensate with skill; however, regardless of that, the 0.7 and 1.0 tier higher BR tanks aren’t that much stronger for no reason. To put it generally, they’re faster, have more powerful ammunition or better armor, better equipment, and are simply stronger… . and it’s not the best feeling to have to play 67% of your matches in this kind of environment.
The difference in % between full uptier and full downtier is simply daunting
I know they’ll never do anything about this, but it’s just infuriating—at least there should be some option so I’m not thrown into a full uptier match in under a second, but can wait 30 seconds for a match in my own tier, which is simply more enjoyable

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Talking by experience, you should make a much bigger spreadsheet, if you want good stats I suggest simply making it a habit to fill the spreadsheet everytime you go in battles.
I say this because this all fluctuates a lot based on the BR, nation, but also time and region, and randomness means the stats won’t always be the same every day. I sometimes get 80% downtiers one day and the next one I can’t get one downtier…

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First of all, thank you very much for your reply. I’ve been thinking about expanding the categories in my Excel file, but I just wanted to quickly put something simple together.
But overall, I don’t mind that there aren’t any full down-tier matches, or that there are full up-tier matches; full down-tier matches are often more unenjoyable than full up-tier ones. There are some really good full up-tier matches (I even got my very first nukes here), but the distribution between up-tiers and the clearly most balanced own-tier is completely disproportionate… .

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Good observation!
I very recently started playing this game and enjoy it a lot.
I play only as Swedish ground vehicles and have just gotten the Strv42-DT (BR=5.0), but facing Tiger-tanks at BR=6.0 or even higher is damn impossible!
It would benefit everyone (except those enjoying shooting fish in a barrel) to lower the gap in battles from +/-1.0 to at least +/-0.5.

With all BRs being equally popular, you can get up to 25% full downtiers in a 16v16 lobby, but no more than 25%.

However, BRs are not equally popular. Some are more popular than others, and the more popular your BR is the lower that full downtier percentage gets.

And you can potentially get over 25% full downtiers by playing obscure BRs, as well as forcing other tech trees’ into your squad that share that obscure BR with your tech tree.