Model Objective
Build a more reasonable Modification-BR system withoutu fitting current BR values. Use two family baselines (T-72/90 and T-80), compute curve weights, then compare to current BR.
Model Method
- Form: linear hyperplane (A/B contributions summed linearly).
- Constraints: A_i >= B_i >= B_min.
- Rank order (soft): Thermal >= Engine >= Reactive Armor >= Dual Control >= Ammunition >= Active Protection.
- Optimization: least squares + L2 regularization + soft ranking penalty.
- Grouping: Chinese vehicles in T-72/90, Ukrainian vehicles in T-80.
Modification Tier Definitions
- A: Gen2+ thermal imaging, 1200 hp engine with reverse speed >= 10 km/h, 3BM60 or equivalent ammo, full frontal Relikt + double-layer side Relikt, Arena APS.
- B: Gen1 thermal imaging, 1000 hp engine, 3BM46 or equivalent ammo, side Relikt, Drozd APS.
- C: No thermal imaging, 850 hp engine, 3BM42 or equivalent ammo, no Relikt, no APS.
Math Formulation
y_hat_k = alpha_T72*f_{k,T72} + alpha_T80*f_{k,T80}
+ sum_i (a_{k,i}*A_i + b_{k,i}*B_i)
min sum_k (y_k - y_hat_k)^2
+ lambda * sum_i[(A_i-A_i0)^2 + (B_i-B_i0)^2]
+ mu * sum_i max(0, A_{i+1}-A_i)^2
constraints: A_i >= B_i >= B_min
rank: Thermal >= Engine >= Reactive >= Dual Rotation >= Ammo >= APS
Priors (default used here)
- A prior: Thermal 0.60 > Engine 0.50 > Reactive 0.40 > Dual 0.35 > Ammo 0.30 > Active 0.25
- B prior: B0 = 0.6 * A0
- Floor: B_min = 0.05
- L2 strength: lambda = 5
- Rank penalty: mu = 100
- T-72A penalty: = 0.3 (only apply to T-72AV)
Tuning Options
- lambda (L2 strength): higher = closer to priors, lower = closer to data.
- mu (rank penalty): higher = stricter rank order, lower = more flexible.
- B_min: higher = larger minimum B.
- A/B priors: replace with your own expert values.
Verdict Thresholds
- |diff| <= 0.15: Reasonable
- 0.15-0.30: Slight downrate / Slight uprate
- 0.30-0.70: Downrate / Uprate
- 0.70: Heavy downrate / Heavy uprate
Baselines
- T-72/90 baseline: 9.99
- T-80 baseline: 10.48
Upgrade Weights
| Upgrade Item | A Weight | B Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Thermal | 0.58 | 0.32 |
| Engine | 0.58 | 0.21 |
| Reactive Armor | 0.46 | 0.12 |
| Turret Rotation Speed (Horizontal & Vertical) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| Ammunition | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| Active Protection | 0.27 | 0.2 |
Results
| Vehicle | Family | Curve Weight | Current BR | Diff (Current-Curve) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T-72B | T-72/90 | 9.99 | 10.3 | 0.31 | Downrate |
| T-72B 1989 | T-72/90 | 9.99 | 10.3 | 0.31 | Downrate |
| T-72AV | T-72/90 | 10.27 | 10.3 | 0.03 | Reasonable |
| T-90A | T-72/90 | 11.12 | 11.0 | -0.12 | Reasonable |
| T-72B3Ae | T-72/90 | 11.53 | 11.0 | -0.53 | Uprate |
| T-72B3M | T-72/90 | 11.96 | 11.3 | -0.66 | Uprate |
| T-72B3A | T-72/90 | 12.24 | 12.3 | 0.06 | Reasonable |
| T-90M | T-72/90 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 0.4 | Downrate |
| ZTZ96A | T-72/90 | 10.57 | 10.3 | -0.27 | Slight uprate |
| ZTZ992/3 | T-72/90 | 11.49 | 11.0 | -0.49 | Uprate |
| MBT2000 | T-72/90 | 11.49 | 11.7 | 0.21 | Slight downrate |
| VT4 | T-72/90 | 11.84 | 12.3 | 0.46 | Downrate |
| VT4A1 | T-72/90 | 12.11 | 12.7 | 0.59 | Downrate |
| T-80B | T-80 | 11.01 | 10.7 | -0.31 | Uprate |
| T-80U | T-80 | 11.59 | 11.7 | 0.11 | Reasonable |
| T-80UM2 | T-80 | 11.47 | 11.7 | 0.23 | Slight downrate |
| T-80UE1 | T-80 | 12.06 | 12.0 | -0.06 | Reasonable |
| T-80BVM | T-80 | 12.79 | 12.7 | -0.09 | Reasonable |
| T-80UDBE | T-80 | 11.06 | 11.0 | -0.06 | Reasonable |
| T-84 | T-80 | 11.97 | 12.3 | 0.33 | Downrate |
Modifaction Matrix
| Vehicle | Family | Thermal | Engine | Ammunition | Dual Rotation | Reactive Armor | Active Protection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T-72B | T-72/90 | C | C | C | C | C | C |
| T-72B 1989 | T-72/90 | C | C | C | C | C | C |
| T-72AV | T-72/90 | A | C | C | C | C | C |
| T-90A | T-72/90 | A | B | A | C | C | C |
| T-72B3Ae | T-72/90 | A | C | A | A | C | A |
| T-72B3M | T-72/90 | A | A | A | A | B | C |
| T-72B3A | T-72/90 | A | A | A | A | B | A |
| T-90M | T-72/90 | A | A | A | A | A | C |
| ZTZ96A | T-72/90 | A | C | C | C | C | C |
| ZTZ992/3 | T-72/90 | A | A | A | C | C | C |
| MBT2000 | T-72/90 | A | A | A | C | C | C |
| VT4 | T-72/90 | A | A | A | A | C | C |
| VT4A1 | T-72/90 | A | A | A | A | C | A |
| T-80B | T-80 | B | B | C | C | C | C |
| T-80U | T-80 | B | A | B | C | C | C |
| T-80UM2 | T-80 | C | A | B | C | C | B |
| T-80UE1 | T-80 | A | A | B | B | C | C |
| T-80BVM | T-80 | A | A | A | A | A | C |
| T-80UDBE | T-80 | A | C | C | C | C | C |
| T-84 | T-80 | A | A | A | C | C | C |