Eh I think the AV-8B+, F-15C and A-10C have a pretty decent possibility to be added in the upcoming few updates (not specifically june though).
F-15C is an easy amraam carrier for 3 nations in game. Japan also stilll needs a fox 3 carrier iirc so adding a later F-15J (F-15C) to them while also adding a later F-15C to the US and Israeli tree is a 3 for 1 deal in terms of work done.
AV-8B+ is an easy C&P (and I’m not saying that it’s a bad thing in this case) from the Italian tree and is a lesser capable fox 3 platform.
A-10C could fit the recent pattern of more, and in the case of Russia better, ground attack aircraft at high tier.
Based upon last year, far far more likely that the US will get F-15C and USSR will get an equivalent in Sep/Oct and Typhoon and Rafale will come in Dec
They added the Merkava 3D to the US tree in September 2020. They added the Israeli tree preorders in October 2021. Previous vehicle additions don’t mean an entire tree won’t come. I can’t imagine previous vehicles would stop them adding a subtree.
About the only hard line I’ve seen from Gaijin is Smin’s statement that once a nation is added as a subtree is added then everything from that nation goes to the subtree.
I feel like 13 months from last nontree addition to a tree appearing is what really makes Israel stand out. At best they decided to add the Israeli tree the moment the Merk 3D went live. I think that makes it a really good example of how fast Gaijin can change their mind.
Yours is a hypothesis, yes. Everything can change, always, we know that. I just limited myself to presenting some hard data.
Anyway, the Merkavas were not added to the regular TT. The case of Israel is similar to that of Indian vehicles in the British TT.