Meh…nah, no thanks.
I dropped 4 vehicles from boxes. And guess what? Because I already have them from past, I got retarded SL compensation.
This boxes are SL dumpster with increasing number of vehicles you own.
Cause if it drop vehicle you already have, instead skip to any another vehicle in list what player don’t own (like it have concurrency tank game), it gives you SL compensation.
Yeah, 1mln SL compensation is a joke. I don’t have a whole lot of these, but i still got a dupe in past editions a few times. There is nothing worse than that.
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Like I said before - using the boxes to get vehicles is a fool’s errand - if you get vehicles then good - but you should be only relying on getting boosters and backups.
2 Likes
for players who haven’t played long enough to get vehicles from 2016 (due to not being a player back then), the option to get them is helpful
not everything should be pampered to the decade old veterans of this game, without an influx of us newish players the game would lose a lot of its player base, especially in top tier jets and low tier ground
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Me too…I have been unlucky with the rewards.
With around 10 MSL, I got two vehicles, an airplane and a tank, which wouldn’t be bad, but the problem is I already have both of them (Mirage 200 & the eletric Tiger)
What can I say, with this mix of rewards, I have almost everything, except for a few items, so the chances of getting something new are lower. Last time, the reward mix was more favorable, and I got 2 airplanes and 2 tanks to add to the collection (spending about 40 MSL).
IMHO, as suggest, there should be a broader pool of available rewards to improve the chances of receiving a vehicle, even for players who have been around for a longer time. In general, I like the idea of the boxes. Of course, being a sort of lottery, one needs to know how to set limits and manage it
Plus, since I’m on PSN, I also have the issue of not being able to sell the coupons, but that’s a long story that goes beyond this event
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Just to follow up and put my own math on the table, here’s an updated tracking sheet I keep for content creators who have opened 1000 boxes or more on stream over this and the previous six SL lootbox events.
Spoiler
*total box number is approximate (manual count as CC didn’t give it)
Legend:
BPA: BPA_Jon
DPL: DefenderPL
IA: The Iron Armenian
M55: Mixx55
ovc: ovcmmcp
Saab: Saabaom
TEC: The European Canadian
TW: ThunderWar
I’ve also put WarTinder’s community count from last August on there as well, with a subtotal to compare it to what the cc’s got. The data just looks at vehicles, not other forms of drops, and counts duplicate vehicles received.
So a couple observations I think should be apparent: I suspect the actual CC large-batch drop rate last August of 0.004, or one in 250 pulls (or, put another way 25:1 odds on a 600K SL 10-box pull), is going to be pretty close to accurate for that event, with about 10% of that coming in coupons. So if you got a coupon last Aug, now you know how lucky you are. Initial results from this event (just one big batch so far) so far look broadly similar.
I think the data strongly suggests the vehicle on-account drop rate has been increased over last year, as starting in February the percentage of on-account drops basically doubled, without any obvious matching increase in the number of vehicle coupons given out. This increase is larger than the increase in the number of vehicles in any one given event (from an average of 37.3 per event in 2023 to 44 different vehicles in the current event). So estimates based on last year’s data may be understating success chances now.
This the way. Cheaper than buying them for GE if you want to use one.
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Where do I find decal and/or decoration boxes if I win one in the snow globe?
It’s not in inventory…
So what does this translate to? How much sl on average does one need for 1 vehicle on average?
around every 298,52 Chest you´ll get a vehicle. so after 17.911.200 SL you should get one Vehicle. our you can get one after the first box or after 600 like me
This is actually quite close to reality.
40 million invested - 3 vehicles (i owned all of them),
As I said here, assuming the same or close to the base probability of 0.004 as in last August’s event, you need 175 “spins” to have a 50% chance of getting a vehicle. That’s what 250:1 odds on an individual throw (or 25:1 odds on a batch of 10) work out to.
So though I have been doing everything to in my spare time make spare SL incase the PBM-3 Mariner was available. And I just spent all of that sl of 4million which is equivilant to 50-60euros in real money in SL. That doesn’t make a scratch and I will never get the PBM-3 Mariner because of my exams during that event…
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If that is true, this “christmas” snow globe chest event is nothing special and isn’t a gift for players, it’s just the normal impossible odds for the average person to earn anything they have wanted for years?
I get you. Simpler math then: the odds of pulling the Mariner, given there’s 44 vehicles and about a .004 chance overall, are ~10,000:1 per box bought. 10,000 boxes is 600 million SL. That’s the price they’re charging for the one vehicle you want here. Sorry.
So wait…
Absolutely worst case scenario that it would be the last vehicle I could win out of the 44…in this event…
600,000,000Silver Lions.
divided by 1,300,000sl as the highest sl you can buy for 3,000GE=461.538
So that’s 3,000x461.5…= 1,384,615GE…
Which would earn you all 44 vehicles, including if it was the 44th the PBM3-Mariner that I have been wanting for the last 5yrs since I missed the 2019 event for it…
Now in reality ofcourse it’s likely for me to get it before then but…how on earth are these fair odds for the average player? Can’t there be a system to select a vehicle you specifically want so that if you randomly gain the token probability, the first vehicle you get (like most video games) is that vehicle?
Therefore making this a very fun christmasy event for those who only make a few million sl a year because of vehicle repair costs and buying vehicles in the tech tree that you have to purchase to move for higher tier vehicles?
SL is not worth anything in GE or real money. It is easily accumulated just through gameplay. So even if a premium or rare vehicle costs just 1 GE, you still win when you get it from SL lootboxes.
3 Likes
No guarantees. Statistically you would be just as likely to get the same vehicle 44 times as get exactly one of each. It’s RNG turtles all the way down.
Because each box is an independent event from a probability perspective, even though the odds are 250:1 roughly of drawing a vehicle, you only have a 63% chance of pulling at least one vehicle in your first 250 spins, an 86% chance in 500 spins. This is also the same distribution curve as you’ll see on a 10,000:1 bet. To have an 86% chance of pulling at least one of that specific vehicle, you need to “spin” 20,000 times (1.2 billion SL).
So, to recap:
Odds of any vehicle (on account or coupon): 250:1
Odds of any coupon: ~2500:1
Odds of a specific vehicle (on account or coupon): ~10,000:1
Ods of a specific coupon: ~100,000:1
Odds of a Type 62 (on account or coupon): ~100,000:1
Odds of a Type 62 coupon: ~1,000,000:1
So how many is that, population wide? To do the SWAG, assume 500,000 players each spending 6 million SL (100 boxes) on average on this. I think that’ll be correct within an order of magnitude. So that’s 50 million box spins, taking 3 trillion SL out of the game economy. On the odds above, that should return:
~200,000 new vehicles across the player base (about 5,000 of each vehicle)
~20,000 new coupons (about 500 of each vehicle)
~50 Type 62 coupons
This SWAG is generally confirmed in terms of being the correct order of magnitude by the numbers of new coupons added to the market after the August event. On the day of peak sales (normally the first day of lootboxes):
AUBL/74 HVG: 121
Bf 110 C6: 24
BMD-4: 68, etc.
The super rare in August was the IS-7, on the first day of the loot boxes 13 new coupons were sold on market. (And yesterday saw 40 new Type 62s.) Which again is what you’d expect from the above.
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220 crates opened so far, received one vehicle straight to account - PBM-3 Mariner in crate number 190.
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