Console I can’t sell it
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Oh balls lol, can you turn it into war bonds 😱 ?
1600 warbonds which I am not doing.
Let’s go gambling!
Can we get some form of confirmation of how many snow globes you have to buy before you can guarentee a vehicle? I spent the equivilant of 50 pounds in silver lions I had saved up over a year, and did not recieve a single vehicle or decal, let alone the PBM-3 Mariner I am hoping to finally gain as it is not available on the gaijin market and I was doing exams during the time the event was on.
Is a rank 2 big pile of trash. Is a waste of SL.
From seeing 10 of these now, all with basically the same odds, I’d estimate it’s closer to .004 than .005 for a vehicle on account.
So putting it all together, you’re looking at needing about a 9 million SL starting amount for a 50% chance at one of the vehicle drops, assuming you also reinvest your SL winnings (which are about 25% of the total from those rolls) or about 11.2 million if you just look at it as all SL spent.
P=1 - (1 - 0.004)^175 = 0.504
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190th crate opened and received PBM-3 Mariner.
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It is def 0.5% (0.05 in decimal) sent you a link to another post in DM’s so you can see a guy who has been tracking drops for the last 3 crate events 🙂
That’s a data set entirely dependent on self-reporting. Basic statistics will tell you it’s likely over-reporting the positives. I’m comfortable with what I wrote.
Did you even open my message LOL? It shows just 1 user viewed still, w/e bro. Cheers.
Mr. Dunning, meet Dr. Kruger.
EDIT: your estimate of coupon vs on-account is also way off by the way. Much closer to 4:1 than 10:1.
There’s nothing helpful about being an innumerate without a modicum of self-doubt. Self-sampling of forum participants to declare their winnings is ALWAYS, always going to overstate the number of successes, given the small numbers we’re talking about, no matter how rigorous. Your P=0.005 is inevitably going to be very close to the upper bound here.
The best stats are going to be from very large data sets (N>1000) from single participants. On those data sets, the P number here has historically been very close to 0.004, with P (vehicle coupon) close to 0.001.
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…you are the one ignoring information, nice projection. Don’t worry, wont try to be helpful with you ever again. Cheers!
All I wanted was the PBM-3 Mariner. Is it too much to ask for ;-;.
i’d like more, i got 44 universal backups from snowglobes
i don’t even have 44 vehicles spaded or that i use a lot…
Yep you need to treat it as a way of getting small RP/SL boosters and backups, with getting any vehicles as a bonus - EXPECTING to get vehicles is a trap.
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From 112M sl to 700k. 2900 crates, 14 vehicles. I had 3 I was missing that’re auto activ only and got 1 of them. The last missing p63 for ussr on my acct. And made about 50 gjn from vehicle coupons too. Thabk you snail! Merry christmas. Heres hoping I get the ersatz and nc900 after using the 12 pages of boosters I have now lmfao.
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PBM-3 Mariner my beloved. I wish there was a way to actually get you.
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Idk whether he sent you a link to my message or was it someone else, but i did track my winnings from at least 3000 chests and the result was exactly a drop chance of approximately 0,4-5%. I recorded every single drop i got right after winning it in excel, so how would i overstate my winnings?
Entire purpose of recording these drops was to get a rough estimate on how likely are you to get a vehicle out of these not bragging about luck or whatever else you are implying.
My today’s opening of 500 crates also seems to fall into the brackets of 0,4-5% with 2 account assigned vehicles.
As for coupon vehicles it was just a guess, with such small chances sample size is way too low to even get an estimate