Its 1/200. Other people have done the calculations too. The chances come out to around 1/200 for vehicles/
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Closer to 1/250, but yes. Every survey that’s been done that doesn’t have a built-in favorable reporting bias comes in around there. 1/2500 for a vehicle coupon.
I think the interesting question is, as they add new vehicles each time, does the chance of all vehicles remain the same (so 250:1, divided by number of vehicles, for a given vehicle) or does it grow a little each time (so, maybe 10000:1 for a given vehicle when there were 40, but if they add 10 vehicles over time the chances of ANY vehicle increases commensurately).
Of course if you have the vehicle on account already, you’re just getting the SL, so if they don’t keep adding vehicles the value of the whole box effort will just continue to go down.
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1/250, I was misremembering. I knew someone had done the calculations better than me but I thought you also got 1/200. Didn’t you say coupon was 1/500 though?
Anyway, I’d guess the chance of each vehicle is (1/250 - 0.001)/[number of available vehicles]. That 0.001 is because they always have 1 vehicle that is much rarer. Though they don’t seem to for the Horseshoe Pouch so for this one it’d be 1/250/[number of available vehicles]. Alternatively, it’s 1/250/[number of available vehicles] and an additional 1/1000 chance of the extra rare one.
Nah, coupon to vehicle is definitely around 1:10.
Of course that’s per box, so a set of 10 (which is what everyone always does) you have to multiply by 10.
So for a set of 10 boxes, it’s about a 25:1 of getting a vehicle on account (or SL if you have it already), or a 250:1 of getting a vehicle coupon. Roughly… no one knows exactly.
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2890 opened this time around so far. 13 vehicles so yeah its still the 200-250 avg. And ofc didnt get either auto activate im missing only 2 a26/yak3t
Last time I got a vehicle was a year and a half ago. It was Haruna. I already had it. This is over more than 500 boxes. I am very unlucky.
Damn, how much sl do you usually put into the crates? 500 for 1 is half the avg odds. Only had 90 mil to mess with this time around since I opened 20,000 some odd winter crates to get my ersatz and nc900 just a couple months ago.
Got my fifth vehicles and it’s another boat the Z25 swear gaijin is playing sick prank on me. I don’t want these awful boats I want tanks 😭
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▪️▪️
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I’m tired of these damn BOTES 😭 give me surblinde or something
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You’re crazy lucky man
The boat I got from the crate last time has been my favorite thing on the sea.
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No chance. It’s a divine intervention.
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MOTHERF-
In all seriousness, congrats. I am officially at over 200 for this round. Over the last 6 rounds of boxes, I have now opened a combined 838 boxes with no vehicle.
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Funny enough, i only opened 30 of them. The luck is absolutely insane
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Got another Excelsior, unfortunately not as a coupon, my luck only lasts on the first hours of the SL Crates.
You are going to have lots of fun or lots of snail funny money.