The odds, based on large sample sizes I collect are 250:1 on a single box for a vehicle (25:1 for a batch of ten). 10% of those come as coupons (so 250:1 on a 10-box pull). 15 million SL per vehicle basically.
You’ll see some people say it’s 200:1, but these tend to be on smaller survey amounts, or ones that rely on player-self reporting, and players tend to report not getting stuff less than getting stuff, which pulls the apparent odds up.
Those odds haven’t changed significantly since they redid the interface mid-event in February, 2024. Before that it was about 500:1 for a vehicle, but ~20% of those came as coupons, so the overall coupon drop rate then was about the same as now.
All the GE lootbox stuff Gaijin appears to have been directed by legal or whatever to put precise percentages on odds this year. SL lootboxes they appear to have decided they still don’t have to.
The one “super rare” vehicle each time when they have it, which gets the “0.001%” asterisk, means it only shows up one time out of every 400 vehicles, or 100,000 boxes (since the base odds are 0.4%). It also has a coupon form, which is probably the rarest thing possible, which if we extend the 10% chance would drop at a rate of about one per million SL boxes purchased.
However… 13 IS-7s went on the market yesterday, which suggests at that drop rate (assuming a multiplier of 2 or less on how many were immediately put to sale) players bought 15-25 million SL boxes yesterday between us, removing a little over 1 trillion SL from the player economy, if that’s the actual drop rate.
(Sounds crazy, I know, but then again how big is the player economy? Well, we know from Gaijin there’s 120 million games a year. If the average earning after costs from those is 10,000 SL per player, and average 30 players per game, that makes for annual SL earnings for the entire player base of ~35 trillion SL. So, 1/30 of a year’s total SL earnings, spent on boxes in one day? Not entirely implausible.)
Because people who don’t get stuff don’t talk as much about it.