In France it will already get to 5, Dassault openned a factory nearby Paris quite recently (Sept. 2025) in for such matters.
— SPECULATION N°1
With India, it might be possible to jump up to 8 Rafale, if required by new orders - the current contract doesn’t limits the capability of this new production line. (As Far As I Know of)
So potential African or South American contracts, could be filling the production in India
this contract is not only a good market for Dassault, it opens more possibilities in the future, for countries whose going to need a new and efficient fighter Jet, without depending on China/Russia/USA equipments.
Others parts of the contract and price are subject to discussion,… i guess Indian Governement said to Dassault that they have to manage the whole process (maintenance included) with the locals (so, India pays Dassault, then Dassault pays local companies, pre-selected with India).
this could explain the whole full price of the contract.
there is also the MBDA production that needs to speed up, in order to equip all those fighters in time.
---- END OF SPECULATION N°1
India is still in complete needs of new aircrafts, MiG-21Bis Bison are olds and failing,…
the HAL Tejas isn’t optimized yet to replace them all in time (instead of what was planned)
Indian MoD does have 29 squadrons today (because of MiG-21 Bison being too old are retired, they were the Backbone of IAF for long time)
They planned on getting 42 squadrons for 2035 (Stated fact), with current discussions to go up to 54 or 56 squadrons, because of potential Two-Front War (China+Pakistan) since Sindoor Operation.
— SPECULATION N°2
If we consider:
A 42 squadrons objective with a 18 aircrafts/squadron as planned by Indian MoD today
Starting with current 29 squadrons already:
Su-30MKI - 13 squadrons (last acquired in 2021)
MiG-29UPG - 3 squadrons (last acquired in 2021)
Mirage 2000I/TI (“-5 Mk2” Indian variant) - 3 squadrons (modernized since 2011)
Jaguars - 6 squadrons (Modernization in progress)
Rafale F.3R - 2 squadrons
HAL Tejas (Mk1/Mk2) - 2 squadrons
Now we face the challenge to get the missing (42-29=) 13 squadrons planned for 2035:
If we consider the 114 Rafale F.4-2 & F.5 → this fills 6 squadrons + 6 aircrafts (for spare)
Let’s say HAL does the same amount of Tejas → that’s another 6 squadrons (+6 aircrafts spare)
it misses a 13th one, that could be filled by either Tejas or Rafale, once Indian MoD knows which manufacturer is the fastest.
IF we now accepts the new India MoD Discussions to 54-56 Squadrons, we must:
Consider the previous 13th squadron to be part of that new plan, so we have 41 squadrons, and needs another 13-16 squadrons:
Rafale F.5 could be present for maybe another 6 squadrons
HAL Tejas could be present for maybe another 6 squadrons
Then, India MoD starts looking toward 5th Gen figthers (they have none), for the remainning 1-4 squadrons lefts,… so we can look at F-35/Su57 current proposals,… looking for UK leaded “Tempest” program or French Leaded SCAF program, both of which would appear quite at the same time of need.
OR (that i would do if i were Indian MoD):
get in relation with Korean KAI // Mitsubishi and buys late 4.5 generation aircrafts in Asia (but non-chinese), to get “allies” close-by.
So,
KF-21 Boramae (up to 4 squdrons)
or
a potential F-2"I" while also replacing the 3xMiG-29 squadrons, in the wait of better proposal (so up to 7 squadrons)
— END OF SPECULATION N°2
But there is a lot of speculations there ^^"
and it doesn’t includes the Indian Navy Air Forces, which looked to get some modern fighter squadrons (composed of 14 aircrafts for fighter squadrons)
so we do have their plans:
replacing the old MiG-29K / KUB by a mix of 26x Rafale M F.4, then TEDBF Program.
for both:
INS Vikramaditya (ex- Admiral Gorshkov)
INS Vikrant
but this will be true only for a time being, as Indian MoD is planning new Aircraft carriers:
INS Vikrant sistership-class (IAC-II) is ordered to replace the INS Vikramaditya (both 45.000 tons class)
then a new:
INS Vishal (a 75.000 tons class) is planned to be built after the IAC-II, in order to get a Nuclear Powered Aircraft Carrier (similar in capacity with the PA-NG, that France ordered to replace R.91)
so there will be needs for aircrafts.